WARRIORS VS KINGS GAME 7 PREVIEW AND PICKS
WARRIORS VS KINGS GAME 7 PREVIEW AND PICKS – APRIL 30, 2023 — Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. It has been said that the two greatest words in sports are “Game 7”. And that is exactly what we have in our marquee matchup that features the No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors taking on the No. 3 seed Sacramento Kings in a winner-take-all game to advance to the conference semifinals.
Let’s hit the rewind button to see how we got to this point and which team has the edge going into 7.
|Golden State Warriors
(3-3 SU playoffs,
(3-3 SU playoffs,
45-36-1 ATS season)
When: Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento CA
Public Bets: Warriors, 52%
Public Money: Warriors, 76%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 30, 2023
How We Got Here
Given the fact that the Kings had not been to the playoffs in 16 years, this squad was not given much of a chance against the defending champions who have won four titles in eight years.
Based on the way the series started, it is safe to say that the up-and-coming Kings did not get the memo. The Kings took the first two games on their home court. This marked the first time since the 2019 NBA Finals that the Dubs dropped consecutive playoff games. Even more important, this was the first time during the Stephen Curry era that the Warriors found themselves facing an 0-2 deficit.
Thanks to 36 points from Curry, the Warriors responded with a resounding 114-97 victory in Game 3. Despite being soundly defeated, the Kings gave the Warriors all they could handle in Game 4, as this contest came right down the wire. Golden State was up by five points when Stephen Curry called for a timeout the Warriors didn’t have.
Some brutal mistakes from the Warriors, including Steph Curry calling a time-out they did not have, helped give the Kings a chance. pic.twitter.com/Yvet1c6Cu2
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) April 23, 2023
As a result, the Kings converted the technical foul shot at the charity strip and De’Aaron Fox hit a 3-point-shot with 29 seconds left to cut the deficit to 126-125. Fortunately for the Warriors, Harrison Barnes missed a three-point as time expired, allowing the Warriors to escape with a one-point victory.
Despite their road woes during the regular season (11-30 record), the Warriors emerged victorious by a 123-116 margin in Game 5. On the heels of three straight wins, the Warriors had all the momentum going into Game 6 with an opportunity to close out the series on their home court.
Once again, though, the Kings had other ideas. Thanks to 28 points off the bench from Malik Monk and 26 points and 11 assists from Fox, the Kings defeated the Warriors 118-99, which is the largest margin of victory in this series for either side. Although Fox and Monk both had impressive outings, it was the Kings’ defense that showed up in a big way in that contest. The Kings held the Warriors to just 37.2 percent shooting from the field and 31.3 percent from beyond the arc, forcing a Game 7 back in Golden 1 Center.
Will the experienced, battle-tested Warriors pull off another road win in this series or will the Kings send the defending champions home?
Here are my picks for this Game 7.
The projected O/U total opened at 231.5. The line currently stands at 229.5, with the OVER attracting 73 percent of the tickets and 87 percent of the cash (subject to change)
The teams are averaging a combined 231.2 and they are allowing the same total.
The Over has hit for Golden State 38 times in their last 52 road games against a team with a winning record. The Kings finished with regular season with a 48-34 record.
In the last 55 road games, the Over has hit for the Warriors 37 times. And the Over also has a 9-4 record for the Warriors in their last 13 first-round playoff games.
The Over has hit for the Kings 25 times in their last 37 games when facing an opponent with a losing road record. As previously stated, the Warriors struggled on the road this season with an 11-30 record.
In the Kings’ last 41 home games, the Over total has hit 27 times during that stretch.
Prediction: OVER 229.5 total points
The Kings opened as a +1 underdog. That line now has them as the favorites (-1).
The Warriors have a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six games in which they had a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. They lost by a 118-99 margin in Game 6.
Golden State boasts a 6-2 record ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
The Warriors hold a 5-2-mark ATS when their opponents score 100-plus points in their previous game. Sacramento scored 118 points in Game 6.
Meanwhile, the Kings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against opponents with a losing road record. The Warriors won just 11 of their 41 road contests this season.
Prediction: Golden State (+1)
Player Prop Bet
Usually, I stick with one player to watch from a given contest. However, since this is a Game 7, I’m going to make an exception.
My first player to watch is De’Aaron Fox. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and less than 28.5 points. Fox is averaging 29.3 points per contest on shooting splits of .445/.340/.757. The Warriors have not been able to slow him so far in this series, and I expect that trend to continue in this contest as well.
My second key player to watch is none other than two-time MVP Stephen Curry. He currently has -115 odds of scoring over 32.5 points and less than 32.5 points. Curry is averaging 31 points per outing on slash lines of .478/.375/.861. While Curry’s series scoring average is slightly lower than the points total, big stars show up in big games. And with a chance to advance to the next round on the line, I expect Curry to rise to the occasion.
Predictions: De’Aaron Fox OVER 28.5 points; Stephen Curry OVER 32.5 points
OVER 229.5 points
Fox OVER 28.5 points
Curry OVER 32.5 points