Warriors vs. Grizzlies Expert Pick - March 18, 2023
WARRIORS VS. GRIZZLIES EXPERT PICK – MARCH 18, 2023 - Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly column where we break some of the marquee matchups from the weekend’s slate of NBA games.Â
One of the most intriguing games features the defending champion Golden State Warriors (36-34) visiting the Memphis Grizzlies (42-27).
Can the Grizzlies notch another win under their belt without their superstar Ja Morant – who is serving an eight-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the league? Can the Warriors finally turn things around on the road? Let’s look at this matchup to see which team has the edge.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Warriors(36-35 SU) |
+5 |
+2 |
O233.5 |
+105 |
Grizzlies(42-27 SU) |
U236.5 |
-2 |
U233.5 |
-125 |
Tipoff
When: Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 8:00 pm ET
Where:Â FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
TV:Â NBA-TV
Public Bets: Warriors, 70%
Public Money:Â Grizzlies, 78%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 18th, 2023
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Season Trends
A Tale of Two Teams Going in Opposite Directions
From an offense standpoint, Memphis is a decent team (ranked 11th in scoring and 20th in efficiency). But this squad shines at the defensive end of the court.
The Grizzlies are ranked 5th in scoring defense (111.9 points per game) and lead the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 110.3 points per 100 possessions.
Over the past week, the Grizzlies have posted wins in four of their last five outings. Two games stand out to me during that stretch. They defeated the Warriors 131-110 back on March 9. And on Friday night, they overcame a 29-point deficit against the San Antonio Spurs en route to a 126-120 win in overtime.Â
Although Ja Morant’s production has been missed, Memphis is 4-3 in the seven games he has missed, and they will be looking to improve that record against the Dubs.Â
The Warriors are an entirely different story. Although they have the second-highest scoring average in the association, they are ranked 25th in scoring defense and 18th in efficiency. Not only that but they have dropped five of their last seven games. In their recent outing against the Atlanta Hawks, the Warriors came up short on the road once again as they were defeated by a 127-119 margin despite 31 points from Stephen Curry.Â
The loss was the team’s 10th consecutive loss on the road. The last time the Dubs posted a road win – which seems like an eternity – was on Jan. 30, when they defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 128-120. The good news for this team is that they still hold the No. 6 spot in the conference playoff race. The bad news the Warriors are just a half-game ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Simply put, the Warriors need a road win and they need one badly.
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Head-To-Head & Betting Trends
The head-to-head matchups between these two ball clubs have gone back and forth over the past couple of seasons.
In 2020-21, The Warriors won two of the three regular-season meetings. Last season, the Grizzlies took three of the four meetings.
And this season, the Warriors won the first two meetings at the Chase Center, and Memphis pulled out a 21-point win when these two teams played just nine days ago.Â
The Picks
Over/Under
The projected scoring total opened at 236.5 points. That line has moved to 233.5 points. These two teams average a combined 234 points per game per contest. Here are a few reasons why I would suggest going with the UNDER in this matchup.Â
The UNDER has a 21-10 mark in Golden State’s last 31 games against an opponent with a winning record. Memphis is 42-27.
The UNDER has a 6-2-1 record in the Grizzlies’ last nine home games when playing against a team with a losing road record. It’s no secret how bad the Warriors have played on the road this season. They come into this matchup with an abysmal 7-28 record on the road.Â
The Under holds a record of 17-6-1 in Memphis’s last 24 games overall. Also, the Under is 5-2 in the Grizzlies’ last seven games when facing a team with a road-winning percentage of less than .400. Golden State has a road-winning percentage of .200. It’s also worth mentioning that the Under boasts a 13-6 record in the last 19 games between these teams.Â
The Spread
The Grizzlies opened as a consensus 4.5-point favorite. That line has moved to 2. Â
The Warriors are 16-35-1 against the spread in their last 52 road games. They are also 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games against opponents with a winning home record. Memphis has won 28 of its 33 home games this season.Â
The Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams that have won more than 60 percent of their home games. The Grizzlies have an impressive .848 winning percentage at home this season.Â
Lastly, Memphis is 41-18-1 ATS in its last 60 home games, and Golden State has lost its last seven road games by eight points. Based on these trends, I’m going with the Grizzlies to win AND cover the -2-point spread.Â
Player Prop Bet
My player to watch in this contest is Stephen Curry. At the time of this writing, no player prob bet info was available. That said, if the projected points total for Curry is 25.5 points or lower, here’s why you should go with the OVER.
Curry has played against Memphis 37 times in his career. He is averaging 26.2 points per contest during that stretch. And he has exceeded the 25.5-point threshold four times in the last five games against Memphis.Â
Over his last 10 outings, Curry is averaging 33.7 points per contest, and his scoring average on the road this season is 31.2 points per contest.Â
Curry has scored at least 27 points in six of his last seven outings. This includes a 50-point performance in a losing effort against the LA Clippers on March 15.
On the season, Curry is averaging 30.1 points per contest. And if that holds, it would be the second-highest scoring average of his storied NBA career.
James's Picks |
Under 235.5 total pointsGrizzlies (-3.5)PPB: Stephen Curry OVER 26.5 points |