Vermont vs. Duke Expert Pick and Prediction – March 22, 2024 

VERMONT VS. DUKE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 22, 2024 — There are two known lovers of the number 13: Taylor Swift and Vermont basketball. When the Catamounts are a No. 13 seed, it’s never a fun experience for their opponent.

The Catamounts haven’t taken down a big name since memorably beating Syracuse in 2005, but they’ve made life uncomfortable for some big names. Over the past seven years, Vermont has been a No. 13 three times, and out of Purdue, Florida State and Arkansas, the Boilermakers were the only one to win by double digits, and that by a mere 10 points.

Duke is the latest No. 4 seed to try its hand against Vermont, and the Blue Devils don’t have much history in this spot. The Blue Devils have only been seeded below a No. 2 seed four times in the past 16 tournaments, but they’ve handled double-digit darlings pretty well since losing to Lehigh and Mercer in 2012 and 2014. The Blue Devils have only been a No. 4 once and got to the Sweet 16, doing exactly as expected.

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These Blue Devils are far more offensive-oriented than usual, which served them well at times. It didn’t work well against teams who were willing to run, such as North Carolina, but Duke mostly handled slower-paced teams.

That’s a problem for Vermont, which takes the air out of the ball. The Catamounts play slow-paced and deny the 3-pointer, but this Duke team isn’t as 3-point dependent as the ones from a decade ago. This Duke team shoots well from deep, but is far more willing to get inside.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Vermont (28-6 SU, 14-18 ATS)	O131.5	+12.5	O133	+550
Duke (24-8 SU, 18-14 ATS)	-11	-12.5	U133	-800

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 22 at 7:15 p.m. EST 

Where: Barclays Center, New York

TV: CBS

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 22nd, 2024

Vermont vs. Duke In-Season Trends 

On one hand, survive and advance has been a way of life for Vermont. The Catamounts have had their past four games decided by seven points or less, which meant they failed to cover in all of them. Vermont does know how to handle low-scoring games and close games, as only Albany and UMBC have topped 70 points against the Catamounts since Jan. 2.

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Duke has to be excited about the fact that this tournament won’t take place in North Carolina and they don’t have any schools from North Carolina in their bracket. Since Jan. 29, the Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS against schools from North Carolina and 9-0 ATS against schools from any other state.

The Difference-Makers 

It’s been 19 years since T.J. Sorrentine lifted Vermont past Syracuse in the first round. These days, Vermont’s led by another T.J., T.J. Long. Long isn’t anywhere near as prolific a scorer as Sorrentine was, but he does lead the Catamounts with 12.2 points per game and is one of the few who regularly shoots it from deep.

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Kyle Filipowski might be able to do whatever he wants here. Filipowski has a four-inch edge on the Catamounts and leads Duke in both scoring and rebounding. This might be an ideal matchup for Duke to go to him early and often.

The Pick 

Vermont’s record looks great, but the Catamounts don’t score anywhere close to what they need to keep up with Duke. This is exactly the type of team that Duke has handled all year long. The Catamounts can’t hit big 3-pointers and don’t push the pace, which doesn’t make for a good matchup with Duke.

Throw in what should be a partisan Brooklyn crowd, and the factors are all lining up against Vermont here.

Dan’s Picks

Duke -12.5    Under 133