Grand Canyon vs. St. Mary’s Expert Pick – March 22, 2024

GRAND CANYON VS. ST. MARY’S EXPERT PICK – MARCH 22, 2024 – The final game of the Round of 64 features the Grand Canyon Antelopes vs St. Mary’s Gaels in the always popular 5-vs-12 matchup. The Antelopes (29-4) have won five games in a row and dominated conference play this season.

They defeated UT Arlington 89-74 in the WAC Championship game. They had a solid non-conference schedule with a signature win against San Diego State. St. Mary’s have won 18 of their last 19 games with the only loss to Gonzaga to end the regular season. They avenged that loss by defeating the Zags 69-60 in the WCC Title game.

While struggling in non-conference play, they did have solid wins over Colorado State, UNLV, and New Mexico.

Related: Colorado State vs. Virginia Pick and Prediction

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Grand Canyon (29-4 SU,18-14-0 ATS)	O131	+6.0	O131	+185
St. Mary’s (26-7 SU,18-14-0 ATS)	-5.5	-6.0	U131	-225

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 22 at 10:05 p.m. EST 

Where: Spokane Veterans Memorial, Spokane, Wash.

TV: truTV

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 22nd, 2024

Grand Canyon vs. St. Mary’s In-Season Trends

St. Mary’s has one of the most elite defenses in the country ranking top 15 in efficiency. They also average over 20 seconds a possession grinding the game to a halt if needed. They are averaging 74.2 points per game while giving up 58.7 per game. Playing the Gaels after a long layoff hasn’t been good for opponents. They are 10-2 against the spread in games following at least four games of rest. They are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games.

Grand Canyon will try to push the pace as they feature three players averaging over 13 points. They average 79.8 points per game and give up 66.9 per game. Their KenPom adjusted rating for them is #53 overall. The Antelopes are underdogs for the first time since early December against San Diego State, where they won and covered. They are 2-0 as an underdog and 4-1 on a neutral floor.

The Difference-Makers

Senior-guard Tyon Grant-Foster could be a breakout star of the tournament for Grand Canyon if they advance. He played for Kansas his junior season and transferred to DePaul where he collapsed at halftime of a game during the 2021-22 season. After receiving his medical clearance, he transferred to Grand Canyon and dominated by averaging 19.8 points and six rebounds a game. Alongside him in the backcourt is junior Ray Harrison (12.7 ppg) and senior forward Gabe McGlothan (13 ppg). 

St. Mary’s offense is truly balanced with five players averaging in double figures. They don’t have much depth, but their slow play style allows this to not be an issue in most games. Aidan Mahaney is the leading scorer at 13.9 points, while junior point guard Augustus Marciulionis is averaging 12.4 points and 5.2 assists. Alex Ducas (10.1 ppg) is the shooter for the Gaels, hitting 44.2 percent of his three-point attempts. 

The Pick 

This could be one of the best games of the Round of 64. Grant-Foster will be the best player on the court and will look to push the pace.  St. Mary’s balance and game experience will be tough to overcome.

This game will come down to the wire and Grand Canyon will keep it close. This may be the first 12 seed to defeat a five seed in two years. Take Grand Canyon with the points. 

Mitch’s Picks

Grand Canyon +6.0