UFC Vegas 74: Three Best Moneyline Bets
UFC VEGAS 74: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – The UFC gears up for 13 straight weeks with some absolute bangers on the card for the summer. The UFC will spend this Saturday night back in Vegas at the apex arena, where Kai Kara-France and Amir Alba headline a flyweight main event bout.
You can read my main event predictions here. Don’t forget to also read Trent’s best prop bets for the main card.
In this article, I’ve outline three moneyline wagers on the undercard that offer some great value.
Maxim Grishin (32-9-2) vs Philipe Lins (16-5)
Grishin
A veteran of over 40 fights, Grishin has taken on all comers from light heavyweight to heavyweight.
Through four UFC fights thus far, he holds a 2-2 record, looking to get some momentum going and march towards title contention. He is a solid all-around fighter with good combination striking, an annoying clinch game, and an intelligent grappling game.
He’s seen fights go the distance often which allows him to put together a full game plan and execute it. There will obviously be fights where he is technically outmatched in certain realms, but for the most part he is one of the toughest veterans on the UFC roster.
Lins
Lins looks to extend his winning streak to three ever since moving down to light heavyweight.
He started his UFC career on a slump with two straight losses up a weight class, which is when he decided he needed to shake things up if he hoped to achieve gold in this promotion.
Lins won the 2018 season of the PFL, banked a million dollars, and now just has his eyes set on his legacy and achieving UFC gold.
Throughout his career he has been a methodical striker, almost to a fault at times with how much output he gives up. That’s the reason I think he lost his first fight against Arlovski, because he fell behind waiting too much. He showed in his last fight he still has big power at this weight class, I’m curious to see how well he rounds it all together moving forward.
The Pick
These guys were matched up against each other back in October where odds were at -180 for Grishin. The only thing that has changed since their original matchup is Lins knocked out Ovince St. Preux in 49 seconds.
That one change has caused the odds to drop to -130 for Grishin, which I think is wild. It’s a perfect example of recency bias. I believe if Lins showed great wrinkes in his game over the course of 8-10 minutes, I’d understand the change in odds, but a quick knockout doesn’t say too much.
It’s been over six years since someone put Grishin out and that man was former title challenger Magomed Ankalaev. I think we are getting a solid discount here on Grishin at a better price tag than before. I expect a full MMA performance here from the Russian from landing more output to mixing in takedowns and control time.
The Pick: Maxim Grishin -130
Tim Elliott (18-12-1) vs Victor Altamirano (12-2)
Elliott
Not many fighters have faced the types of trials and tribulations Elliott has faced over the last two years. Injuring and recovering from ACL/MCL surgery, losing his head coach to a gambling scandal, and most recently finding out his wife was cheating on him with one of his main training partners/cornermen, Elliott has really been through the ringer.
We saw something a little similar a couple weeks ago with Mackenzie Dern going through a rough time in her personal life, but she used that positively and took out her aggression in the cage.
Maybe Elliott can channel the same intensity this weekend. Elliott is a veteran with a unique and awkward fighting style that many find difficulties getting a beat on. So much so that he handed Tagir Ulanbekov his first UFC defeat in his last fight.
Elliott is a strong grappler, awkward striker, and has a great gas tank. Not to mention over 30 fights of experience, he is a tough out for anyone at 36-years-old.
Altamirano
Taking a significant step up in competition, Altamirano looks to push his winning streak to three this weekend.
He fumbled his UFC debut by split decision, but has since defeated two Brazilians to get some momentum going. Altamirano is the former LFA flyweight champion but got called up to the Contender Series before he had the opportunity to defend it.
He is a very mobile striker with a consistent kicking game from distance. His takedown defense needs a lot of work, but he’s done a solid job of remaining active off his back to keep his opponents off balance and from landing big strikes. If he hopes to succeed at this level, he will either need to significantly improve his jiu jitsu off his back or get better takedown defense, otherwise he will get chewed up by the higher-level flyweights.
The Pick
I think this is a great return fight for Elliott to showcase his grappling and keep Altamirano on the defensive.
The awkward striking style of Elliott will keep Altamirano guessing and before he knows it. He’ll likely have his back on the mat. I think even in the striking realm Elliott can out-strike Altamirano.
I just feel this is too big of a step up for Altamirano, no matter how talented he is. Elliott has seen all types of opponents in the past and I think he can devise the perfect game plan to overcome the obstacles Altamirano presents.
The Pick: Tim Elliott -175Â
Jim Miller (35-17) vs Jared Gordon (19-6)
Miller
Entering his 42nd UFC fight, which is a record in the promotion, Miller can add to another one of his UFC records by recording his 25th win this weekend.
He’s remained very active during the COVID era and has put together a respectable 4-3 record since the pandemic. There was a three-fight winning streak sprinkled in there but was halted in his last fight by Alexander Hernandez.
Miller has shown he can be dangerous early, but as fights go into deep waters his efficiency starts to drop off. Hernandez was a fighter who has similar issues, but showed a disciplined game plan could defeat Miller. High level BJJ, decent early power, Miller has a handful of positives to still showcase at this stage of his career.
Gordon
Gordon is six weeks removed from his unfortunate fight with Bobby Green that saw him get finished due to an accidental headbutt.
Luckily the review officials caught it and ultimately deemed the fight as a no contest. Gordon was a 2-to-1 underdog that night, but out-performed that price tag for as long as the fight lasted.
He is an all-action, high output fighter with very good cardio. Many believe he got robbed of being the first fighter to defeat Paddy Pimblett in the UFC back in December, but I’m sure he could get the opportunity again considering Pimblett has been calling him out again.
Gordon’s durability has been a big question mark in the past, but he has shown a solid chin over the last couple years, outside of when he gets headbutted. I love his style. He’s quite a reliable fighter (given the right matchup), and I think he still has a lot to offer.
Miller does have an early finishing threat, but I think Gordon can find safe spots throughout this fight to wear on Miller. Whether it’s with takedowns or the clinch, I think Gordon can nullify Miller and thrive with his output.
Taking a page out of the Alexander Hernandez playbook last time around, Gordon just needs to survive the early onslaught and then turn the pressure and output back on Miller.
I believe this is a great fight for Gordon and I don’t think the events from the Bobby Green fight will loom too large in this matchup.