UFC Vegas 74: Best Main Event Props
UFC VEGAS 74: BEST MAIN EVENT PROPS – After taking a week off, the UFC is again in the Apex in Las Vegas. The smaller octagon will be the main stage for a fight card full of veterans looking to put on a show and work their way up the rankings. The prelims begin at 6 p.m. EDT on ESPN, and the main card follows at 9 p.m. on the same channel.
Kai Kara-France is the third-ranked flyweight and is looking to get back on track after losing a title fight against Brandon Moreno. He is 24-10 with one no-contest, and nearly half of his victories (11) have come via knockout.
Amir Albazi is the seventh-ranked flyweight on a five-fight winning streak, with four in the UFC. He is 16-1 in his career and has nine wins via submission.
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Albazi to Win by Decision +380
In the eyes of the oddsmakers, this fight is a pick ‘em. Kara-France has the advantage on the feet, but Albazi has the grappling/wrestling advantage.
He is powerful for a flyweight, and his nickname, “Don’t Blink,” holds up. Kara-France has proven his ability to knock opponents out in the UFC but must be weary of setting his fight to fire off a powerful shot against Albazi. Albazi averages 2.47 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is offensive with his grappling on the mat.
The Game Plan
The best game plan for Kara-France is to be light on his feet and try to punish Albazi with volume.
This matchup is also a big step up in competition for Albazi. Kara-France has fought for a title and faced lots of high-caliber opponents. He does, however, have some weaker parts of his game. Despite defending all three of Moreno’s takedown attempts, he has surrendered takedowns in the past.
Albazi has tremendous wrestling and can likely get Kara-France to the ground or pressure him against the cage. Kara-France does his best work in space, and Albazi can pressure him to the side of the cage with his wrestling and slow him down. Albazi will get tested in his first five-round bout, but he has the advantage in style to win by decision.
Albazi to Win by Submission +275
Kara-France has lost by submission on three occasions in his career, with the latest coming against Brandon Royval in 2020.
Royval is long and is a tremendous finisher inside the octagon. Albazi is four inches shorter than Royval but still possesses dangerous jiu-jitsu.
The odds say that Albazi is more likely to get the submission than a decision win and 50/50 that it goes the distance. The better value lies in Albazi winning by decision, but a submission victory is within his path to win this bout.
It is not a bad idea to cover all bases by taking them individually or taking Albazi to win by submission or decision for +120.
Under 2.5 Total Rounds +185
Kara-France can put the lights out for any opponent and is always a threat of a knockout.
Albazi is also dangerous in the grappling department and tends to get submissions early in fights. If he does not lock something up early, it will not come later against a fighter as experienced as Kara-France.
When Royval choked Kara-France, it happened 48 seconds into the second round. The submission likely comes early, and a quick knockout by Kara-France is also in play with this bet.