UFC Austin: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Drakkar Klose (13-2-1) vs Joe Solecki (13-3)
UFC AUSTIN: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – With an impressive 7-2 UFC record since joining the promotion back in 2017, Klose is not talked about often due to his relative inactivity.
Recently he’s been on the sidelines due to an ACL injury he suffered last year but has now returned and looks to build upon his two-fight winning streak. A product of The MMA Lab down in Arizona, Klose has a great all-around game. From his wrestling to his output, Klose seems to have a solid grip on what it takes to win decisions and he does a great job of implementing that style.
Related: UFC Austin Main Even Prediction
This Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt only has one loss on his UFC record, but I feel most would agree that he has been underwhelming even in his victories.
When he has his opponent’s back or is in top position, he is very dangerous and solid at holding them down.
However, you would expect a more active game off his back. Usually, you see him holding on and waiting for a referee to stand them up, which I think is very unfortunate for someone who has been touted as having a very high-level submission game. His striking could still use work, but he’s made the most of the matchups that have been presented to him thus far.
The only thing holding me back from making this an even bigger play is the layoff and recovery from an ACL injury.
Klose is a far better mixed martial artist than Solecki, but it’s never a good sign when you see a fighter at 35 years old returning from an injury as significant as he suffered.
I also don’t think highly of Solecki to pass on this spot or take a shot on him, so I’ll take the -125 on Klose and hope that he can get close to his former level.
The Pick: Drakkar Klose -125
Sean Brady (15-1) vs Kelvin Gastelum (18-8)
Looking to rebound after his first professional defeat, Brady is hell-bent on reminding people how good he is. A black belt in jiu jitsu, Brady normally looks to use his stocky frame to bully his opponents in the grappling realm, smothering them with top pressure, and looking for the neck to find a submission.
His striking could still use some work, but he has managed to make it work. His last opponent, Belal Muhammad, did a great job of frustrating Brady and keeping him at distance, getting no where close to sniffing a takedown attempt. It will be intriguing to see what kind of improvements Brady has made since then.
Finally returning to the weight class he should have been at this entire time, Gastelum is taking his newfound confidence with his new team back down to welterweight.
Cutting to 170lbs for Gastelum in the past has been a tough ask, but joining his new team as well as the strength and conditioning crew over at Neuroforce1 should allow Gastelum to optimally make the weight and showcase his best form the following day. Slick boxing and underrated grappling have propelled Gastelum into a successful career with the UFC.
Now at 32 years old, you must believe the experience and maturity has been fine tuned for him to achieve the potential many expected of him during his initial run at 170.
This feels as though it will be a reminder of how good Gastelum is at his best.
His speed, agility, power, and grappling were things he could rely on early in his career. Having to settle at 185lbs due to his weight cutting issues forced him to fight bigger opponents who were able to stifle those traits. Now back at 170lbs, I expect him to thwart the grappling offense of Brady.
This can allow him to either use his striking to touch up Brady or he could use his own wrestling to put Brady in uncomfortable positions. Regardless at +100, I’m sold on the new and improved version of Gastelum.
The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum +100
Rob Font (20-7) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1)
Riding an unfortunate 1-3 run over his last four fights, Font is looking to make a statement this weekend by defeating a former champion to reassert himself in title contention.
Font is a volume-based striker who has no problems reaching the triple digit significant strike mark even in three-rounders.
Unfortunately, power punchers have nullified his high-output approach by hurting him constantly or using a grapple-heavy approach to stifle him on the mat. If he can shore up the striking defense a little more and ensure he can keep fights upright, he could find that resurgence he is looking for.
Figueiredo will likely be the only fighter in UFC history to have competed against the same opponent four times in a row. Now with the Moreno rivalry behind him, Figueiredo sets his sights on the bantamweight division.
He no longer must cut an extreme amount of weight to make a ridiculous number, so it will be interesting to see how this move up in weight will impact his abilities and gas tank management.
We all know he has massive power that will translate up a weight class, but also an imposing grappling game to grind opponents out. Don’t forget about his nasty squeeze when he latches onto his opponent’s necks either.
Font is in for a tough task this weekend as I feel Figueiredo can replicate what Aldo and Vera put him through. Font may double or triple Figueiredo in significant strikes, but I think Figueiredo can land the bombs when he needs to or even take a grapple-heavy approach to subdue Font on the mat.
I think Figueiredo will be more reliable, and I expect that to come through for him this weekend. Give me a shot on the high-level underdog in his bantamweight debut.