UFC 290 Betting: Three Best Moneyline Picks
UFC 290 BETTING: THREE BEST MONEYLINE PICKS. You’ve already seen my call for the main event, which went live yesterday. Now it’s time to look at the best moneyline UFC 290 betting prices across the rest of the fight card.
Kamuela Kirk (11-5) vs Esteban Ribovics (11-1)
After making a splash in his UFC debut by pulling off a short notice upset over Makwan Amirkhani. He used solid striking and good enough defensive grappling to damage the wrestler over 15 minutes to get his hand raised by decision.
He is a BJJ black belt with solid all-around skills. However, he has low output at times and is also coming off some serious injuries over the last year. He is also going up a weight class for this fight and is battling a lot going into it.
Ribovics made a solid account of himself even in defeat during his UFC debut earlier this year. He was originally scheduled to fight Kirk, but Kirk pulled out and in stepped a much different opponent in Loik Radzhabov. Ribovics was taken down often, but he did a great job of nullifying the amount of damage he was eating. All the while, he dished out a ton of damage in the striking realm.
He is used to putting folks away on the regional scene with his speed and power. But he also has a solid enough grappling game as well to hold his own. Training regularly at Kill Cliff FC gives me confidence that he is making the improvements necessary to keep a long-term UFC spot. I feel with everything that Kirk is battling going into this fight, he will struggle against Ribovic’s defensive grappling and big powers.
Ribovics is more than prepared for this matchup, and I think is encouraged by his performance last time around. If he is to defeat a middling Kirk, look for power punching, a solid takedown defense, and huge forward pressure for a KO.
The Pick: Esteban Ribovics -155
Marcin Prachnio (16-6) vs Vitor Petrino (8-0)
Coming off a pedestrian performance against William Knight where Prachnio was able to rack up leg kicks from distance without any threat, Prachnio is looking to string together another UFC win streak. He is lucky the UFC decided to bring him back after starting his stint 0-3, especially with all three knockouts coming in round one.
His peak performance thus far was against Khalil Rountree, a fight where Prachnio’s footwork and karate style helped him stay out of trouble. He is mainly a striker with an improving defensive game, but I think he has a hard cap on his ceiling.
Meanwhile, Petrino extended his undefeated streak to eight last time around after taking all of the grappling from Anton Turkalj and turning it against him. Petrino has insane power and has finished six of his eight opponents. He is strong, powerful, and explosive which makes him very difficult to gameplan for. His cardio is starting to get better, which is important as finishing opponents will be harder to come by at this level of the sport.
Although Prachnio is getting better at treading distance safely, I still expect the pressure, speed, and power of Petrino to catch up to Prachnio here. I think Petrino will do a great job of crashing the pocket and eventually finding that fight-ending shot. I feel as though it will come from a counter to one of Prachnio’s kicks.
Look for Petrino to get back to his finishing ways, you can even target his knockout prop if you want to take some of the juice off his line.
The Pick: Vitor Petrino -240
Jimmy Crute (12-3-1) vs Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1)
Going through a serious lifestyle change, Crute came in much better shape in his last outing. He is a born grappler with tremendous potential, and his striking is getting better. That gives him the ability to set up a takedown, so he can get to work with his specialty. If his durability stays top notch and his cardio stays on point, I expect Crute to be a very difficult proposition at light heavyweight,
As for Menifield, he left his long-time corner of Fortis MMA. But moving to Colorado to start training under Pat Berry is unlikely to change his ways. A power puncher who slows down late, he has incorporated some decent groundwork into his toolbox. But against the higher level, I think it will be ineffective and cause him to gas out sooner. He is always dangerous with his power, so that is always something to respect.
These guys fought to a draw in their last fight, after a fence grab from Menifield got a point deducted. Before that flashpoint moment, Crute was having success throughout that fight with his grappling. Most notably, he did a solid job of rolling with Menifield’s big shots to stay in the fight.
I think with a couple of fixes and being a tad more cautious, Crute can fully avoid the big power of Menifield and get to work with his grappling.
The Pick: Jimmy Crute -140