Twins vs. Royals Expert Pick and Prediction – March 28, 2024 

TWINS VS. ROYALS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 28, 2024 — Last season, Cole Ragans was the key piece in the deal that sent Aroldis Chapman to Texas for the Rangers’ World Series run. Now the 26-year-old gets his chance to show that he can start Kansas City’s climb back to respectability.

The Royals lost 106 games last season, one of the worst years in the history of a franchise that’s had a lot of lowlights. Since its 2015 World Series title, Kansas City’s had more 100-loss seasons (three) than non-losing seasons (two). That said, there’s always a chance at the playoffs when you play in AL Comedy Central, as the Twins won this division with just 87 victories last year.

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When Minnesota connects, there’s about a 1-in-8 chance of the ball heading toward the seats. But the Twins’ biggest problem is that they often don’t connect. Minnesota led the majors in strikeouts last season, which was one big reason why the Twins barely scratched the Astros in last year’s playoffs. Minnesota scored just 18 runs in six postseason games last year, and while that worked against the equally punchless Blue Jays, it couldn’t match Houston.

But the Twins have gotten one benefit out of their feast-or-famine lineup: they’ve learned to count on their pitching. And that makes this matchup potentially one of the best pitching duels available on Opening Day.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Minnesota Twins (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)	-1.5	-1.5	O8	-125
Kansas City Royals (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)	U8.5	+1.5	U8	+105

Tipoff 

When: Thursday, March 28 at 4:10 p.m. EST 

Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez, MIN (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K’s) vs. Cole Ragans, KC (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K’s)

Public Bets: 61% on Kansas City

Public Money: 68% on Minnesota

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 28th, 2024

Twins vs. Royals In-Season Trends 

The Royals couldn’t find the answer to Lopez last season. Even when they tagged him for six runs in April for his second-worst start of the season, Minnesota still emerged victorious, claiming an 8-6 victory. For the year, the Twins went 3-0 against Kansas City with Lopez on the hill in 2023.

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Last year was a tale of two series when the teams met in Kansas City. The Twins swept the opening series in March and April, but the Royals returned the favor at the end of July with a sweep of their own.

The Difference-Makers 

These teams opened in Kansas City last season, and Lopez took the ball and mowed through the Royals. Kansas City managed just two hits against the Twins’ ace last season on Opening Day, taking a 2-0 loss as Lopez fanned eight. Last season, Lopez gave up three runs or less 26 times in 35 starts, including seven of his final eight trips to the mound.

Ragans became a different pitcher when he came to Kansas City and moved into the rotation. His biggest issue has been walks against patient teams, but he’s mostly mowed through teams that swing freely. His biggest problems came against Houston, Detroit and Toronto, because all three waited him out and let him wave them on to first.

But as long as Ragans doesn’t issue too many walks, he’s been a solid starter. When he kept his walk totals to three or less, he only had one instance out of eight where he allowed more than three runs.

The Pick 

A lower score is likely the way to play this one. Lopez has established himself as a top pitcher and Ragans is trying to get there. Kansas City’s lineup isn’t very patient and Minnesota’s certainly isn’t.

That gives the edge to the pitchers. However, the wind is expected to hit 17 miles per hour heading out to the bleachers. That favors the Twins’ lineup, and it means that the bullpens might struggle to hold the score down.

This is a game where you want to ride the starters and get out before the winds really wreak havoc on the lesser pitchers. If you play the full total, the over makes more sense once the wind gets involved.

Dan’s Picks

Twins ML -125    Under 4.5 Runs First Five Innings (-145)