Toby’s Week 14 NFL Picks and Previews for Every Game
TOBY’S WEEK 14 NFL PICKS AND PREVIEWS FOR EVERY GAME – Just what the doctor ordered, a 4-8 week! The doctor, of course, is Michael Swango. Things are hectic around these parts, so I don’t really have time to go through each game however this is not really necessary as I can summarize most of them thusly: I lost, again.
Week 13 Total (All Games): 4-8-1
Season Total: 93-96
Week 13 High Confidence Games: 1-2
Season Total: 37-42
Clearly, confidence is at an all-time high.
All I can do is get up, brush myself off, and keep losing. Clear eyes, full heart, can lose. Just call me L Chapo.
Let’s try to get it all back in one week!
We’ve got two irrelevant teams (Arizona and Washington) on byes this week, which ends the 2023 byes but is also super weird and pointless and why is the NFL doing this?
Do they seriously not notice how strange it is that some teams have byes in week 5 and others in week 14?
Why not bunch them all up around weeks 8-12 so that not only do they affect fewer weeks but, like, it’s significantly fairer to all teams?
Did Goodell try ayahuasca this year? We also have two Monday Night games this week which I actually don’t hate so at least we have that going for us.
HIGH CONFIDENCE GAMES
#1: TAMPA +2.5 @ ATLANTA
“Toby”, you might think, “maybe you keep losing because you keep betting on teams like Tampa”.
Well, Reader – if that’s even your real name – yes, I do keep betting on teams like Tampa, but I also kept betting on teams like Green Bay until I stopped – and then Green Bay started ripping off wins like I expected them to all along.
Even three weeks is a small sample size to use to make decisions solely based on feels.
Hell, 17 games isn’t a huge sample size and that’s an entire season! When I avoid teams like Detroit and the LA Chargers, I’m basing that on an entire lifetime of those teams doing weird things to lose games. I shouldn’t have been there so quickly with Green Bay and I’m not there yet on Tampa.
That being said, I am less “in” on Tampa now than I was a month ago, back when they weren’t losing every week.
The Trash Birds
This, however, is more of a bet against the Atlanta Trash Birds and their clinically depressing offense.
Can this team realistically get enough pick-sixes to win this game? They only got 2 points last week against Tim Boyle, and they barely even covered that!
This team keeps trotting Desmond Ridder out there for whatever reason as if he’s ever going to be a legitimate NFL option and until both him and Artie Smith are gone, Falcons games should only be televised on Cinemax after dark. My kink is endless punts.
Why is this team getting points against anybody? Oh no, Tampa has to travel like 40 miles and play in a lifeless dome! I’d probably have this as my number 1 game if it were a pick ‘em, let alone when I’m getting points.
#2: MINNESOTA @ LAS VEGAS +3
Guys, it’s over. Josh Dobbs had one good game and everyone crowned his ass and now, four picks against the Bears later, he might get benched. I don’t care if Justin Jefferson comes back, who’s going to throw the ball to him? Jaren Hall? Sounds like a Madden auto-generated name.
The Raiders have seemingly lost a bit of their luster after getting wrecked by the Chiefs last weekend but that was the Chiefs and they were still right in that game until the Chiefs pulled away near the end. Against the Vikings?
I absolutely think they win this game straight-up and I’ll gladly take a field goal on top of that.
#3: NEW ENGLAND +6 @ PITTSBURGH
What an absolute thriller we’re getting on Thursday night this week!
I realized my mistake on Sunday and took the Cardinals +6 over the Steelers, because the Steelers were getting enough respect in my opinion that this would count as a horrible loss game for them and indeed, that’s exactly what happened.
As good as Mike Tomlin teams are as underdogs in tough situations, they are exactly as bad in games like this.
Trubisky
On top of the bad loss, Kenny Pickett managed to injure his ankle and now we have a month of Mitch Trubisky. Pickett isn’t exactly “good” or “not terrible” but he looks like Michael Vick compared to the aggressive conservatism of Mitch Trubisky. This guy is nearly impossible to watch.
Checkdown, checkdown, checkdown, oh no too many checkdowns better predetermine a deep ball into triple-coverage and get picked off. He’s the worst.
This is how they used to play back in the 1940s when no one had any idea what they are doing. Mitch Trubisky just wants to be Bobby Layne, I guess.
So what is this buzzsaw going up against this week? Bailey Slappy and the hapless Patriots, fresh off a 6-0 (!!!!) loss to the Chargers in what I imagine was one of the least watchable games of the last decade.
I can’t tell you because there’s no way on Earth I was going to watch a second of it. Now this explosive offense gets to head back out there on a short week and give it another go. It’s almost as if offense has gotten so easy that Bill Belichick just inherently feels a burning desire to swerve and win games by running fullback dives and scoring on punt returns, just to continue confirming his genius to the world.
There’s going to be weather in the Northeast this week, but it’s not supposed to get here until the weekend and Pittsburgh should be pleasant by December standards tonight. I bet these teams are pissed that they won’t have an excuse after this one. The Over is 30.5 and it’s still probably not nearly low enough.
#4: PHILADELPHIA +3.5 @ DALLAS
There are two teams that are universally criticized for not beating good teams. One is Miami, and they’ve certainly earned it.
The other is Dallas, and while they have been better than Miami, they still continually lose these games. So why would this one be any different?
The way I see it, we’re getting a bargain here after Philly’s awful loss to San Francisco last week. I mean, San Francisco absolutely embarrassed Dallas too. I’m not afraid to back the Eagles here if I’m going to get 3 and a half points to do it.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE GAMES
#5: INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI +1
Is Jake Browning for real? I don’t know, but he did look good last week. It wasn’t like he was just throwing screens.
That bit of hesitation is keeping this one out of the top tier. Yet, I do still like Cincinnati enough to bet on them this week.
We’ve also got potentially the worst weather of the week in this one and while Indy may be better built for that on paper, they are still without Jonathan Taylor and more importantly, they still have that pillowy soft Dome Team DNA.
#6: SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -10.5
This is a tough spread to take but until I see otherwise, San Francisco absolutely owns Seattle and I will bet on the Niners drilling the Seahawks every single time.
#7: TENNESSEE @ MIAMI -13
I have a gut feeling that Tennessee will cover this, but my head keeps jumping in and reminding me that the Dolphins destroy bad teams, and Tennessee is a pretty bad team.
Will Levis has not looked good in a month and I don’t think that changes on Monday night.
#8: DETROIT +3 @ CHICAGO
I was close to putting this one in the bottom tier based on the way the Lions are trending but they did show enough in jumping all over New Orleans last week that I think I trust them to beat down a clearly inferior Bears team.
Sure, the Saints came back to make it close but that’s what the Saints do and I don’t think anybody expected them to actually complete that comeback.
This is the last outdoor game for the Lions during the regular season but somehow the weather isn’t expected to be atrocious this weekend in Chicago and I’m going to take Jared Goff despite the possibility that he encounters a slight breeze on Sunday. Goff’s got zero dog in him though, so I’ll probably regret this.
I’m actually starting to regret it already.
LOW CONFIDENCE GAMES
#9: LOS ANGELES RAMS @ BALTIMORE -7
This is a big spread for a team like the Ravens that has been shooting themselves in the foot all season, but I still think they are the best team in the NFL this year and I’ll still take them laying a touchdown if I absolutely had to bet this game.
#10: GREEN BAY -6.5 @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The uncertainly I have on this game has nothing to do with the Packers; I am fully back on board with Green Bay. Nope – it’s all centered on New York.
I don’t think this team is good, but I’m not sure that they are terrible anymore and that is such an indictment on Daniel Jones that he may as well just put his house on the market now. I mean, Tommy DeVito is making your team better?
Anyone who still blindly says “but the offensive line!” as if QBs have nothing to do with sack rates just has absolutely no idea what they are talking about. This looked like an absolutely abysmal Monday Nighter a few weeks ago but now I think it has just a little bit of juice.
#11: HOUSTON +5.5 @ NEW YORK JETS
You guys realize that you were just gifted two opportunities to bet against the Tim Boyle Jets, right? I hope you took advantage of it, because now it’s gone forever. I will be stunned if we see Tim Boyle on an NFL roster again.
That being said, I have no feel for the Texans this year. I think they win this game easily but that defense combined with nasty weather gives me a little bit of pause.
I will be avoiding this one; please do not discuss it with me or even mention its existence. Thanks.
#12: JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND -3
December in Cleveland with either a hobbled Trevor Lawrence (who has never seen a throw he wouldn’t put up for grabs) or CJ Beathard?
I’m not a big fan of the Browns in their current state but I hate them less than I hate the Jags in this one. This will likely be another one of those 6-3 nail-biters we see so often late in the year in Cleveland.
#13: BUFFALO +2.5 @ KANSAS CITY
I have little feel for the Chiefs this year but absolutely no feel for the 2023 Bills.
They’ve been playing better, since moving away from Ken Dorsey. If I had to I’d close my eyes here and take the points.
Might have some tough conditions here. However, if there were two QBs who are nearly impervious to those conditions, it would be the two playing in this game.
#14: CAROLINA +5 @ NEW ORLEANS
I hate the Panthers, but I hate the Saints even more. Give me the lesser of two evils, I guess.
#15: DENVER @ LOS ANGELES -2.5
You realize that you don’t have to bet on this one, right? Like, you can simply refuse to take any position on a Broncos/Chargers game and it’s absolutely ok. It’s fine! No one’s going to judge you! So just put your wallet back in your pocket and forget this game even exists. You’ll thank me later.