Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Chiefs Expert Pick – October 12, 2023

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: BRONCOS AT CHIEFS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 12, 2023 – The Chiefs are riding a four game winning streak into Thursday night and will face the one-win Broncos at home.

One of the Chiefs’ superstars is in jeopardy of missing the game on a short week. The Broncos also have some injury issues and could be a different version of each team. The only thing guaranteed in this matchup is that Arrowhead Stadium will be loud.

Related: NFL Football Week 6 Fantasy Football Sleepers

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, October 12, 2023

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: Broncos, 67%

Public Bets: Broncos, 59%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  October 4th, 2023.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos dropped to 0-3 at home with a loss to the Jets last week. They have only beaten the Bears this season, and it took a massive comeback to accomplish that. The situation in Denver is looking bleak. Russell Wilson has an 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio and sacked 15 times, which ties for sixth most. The defense has been awful this season and has given up the most yards.

Justin Simmons is questionable with a hip injury. He is practicing in a limited fashion. D.J. Jones injured his knee in the second quarter against the Jets and is questionable. Linebackers Frank Clark and Justin Strnad are also questionable to play Thursday night.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have rattled off four consecutive wins since losing to the Lions in the season opener. They just went to Minnesota and beat the Vikings 27-20.

Travis Kelce limped off the field in the second quarter and went to the locker room for tests. He returned in the second half to finish the game. He is day-to-day with an ankle injury and could miss this game on a short week. He was limited at practice on Tuesday, which is a step in the right direction.

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Head-To-Head

The Broncos defense has been terrible this season. The unit has allowed 187.6 rushing yards per game and 281.8 passing yards per game. They also allow 36.2 points per game.

They give up the most points and yards per game. It could be a long night for the Broncos’ defense. The Chiefs are first at converting third downs (51.5%) and average 25.6 points per game.

They should do well against this defense, even if Kelce does not play. The Chiefs may use this game to get their rushing attack momentum after a mediocre 67 yards last week.

Isiah Pacheco was inefficient against the Vikings but has proven himself this season. He ran 20 times for 115 yards against the Jets in week four. The matchup is great for him this week, and they could lean on him even more if they jump out to a big lead.

Russell Wilson has not been terrible this season. The defense is giving up tons of points, so he has to throw the ball more playing catch-up. He has performed well and taken care of the ball, but it would be hard for anyone to put up more points than the defense has allowed.

The Chief’s defense could present some problems for them, however. They only allow teams to convert 35.4% of third downs and allow 16 points per game.

They have not lost a game since Chris Jones returned in week two. He has contributed 4.5 sacks thus far and is a commanding presence on the defensive front. The Broncos average 24.2 points per game, but this Chiefs’ defensive unit should be able to hold them under that number.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total is at 48 on DraftKings and I would play the under. The Chiefs may run against this defense and shorten the game, so the under is the best play.

Spread

The Chiefs are 10-point favorites at home. They should score plenty of points in this matchup and run the ball efficiently. I would not risk a large amount on the spread, but the Chiefs -10 is the side I would take.

Player Prop

Rashee Rice has been targeted 24 times this season and is averaging 4.8 per game.

He is the second most targeted player on this team behind Travis Kelce and could have an increased role this week. His yardage total is at 29.5, which he has surpassed in three consecutive games. He should get that number, and could get to some of his alternate totals listed on DraftKings.