Texas A&M vs. Houston Expert Pick and Prediction – March 24, 2024 

TEXAS A&M VS. HOUSTON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 24, 2024 — If Texas A&M could shoot the 3-pointer as well as it did against Nebraska every night it took the floor, it would be a national championship contender. The Aggies got good looks all night from behind the arc and actually made them, sinking Nebraska’s NCAA tournament hopes.

Normally, A&M’s game is built around rebounding and getting to the free throw line. The Aggies have won all year without a reliable 3-point game, ranking second-worst among Power 6 teams from behind the arc. But they came up big against the Huskers and still have both their rebounding and driving skills. Against most teams, that makes them a potential matchup nightmare.

Houston, however, is not most teams. The Cougars have squeezed the life out of just about everyone they’ve faced this season. Houston played like a team that was out of gas against Iowa State, but otherwise, the Cougars have been sensational on defense. They’ve also played Texas A&M before and understand exactly what they didn’t do well the first time.

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In that game, the Cougars led by as much as 21 points, only to see A&M launch a furious comeback, tie the game and ultimately come just four points short. Houston gave A&M too many opportunities at the free throw line, the one place where they cannot play any defense. If the Cougars have fixed that, A&M’s going to need another incredible shooting night to win.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Texas A&M (21-14 SU, 17-18 ATS)	O131.5	+10	O134.5	+390
Houston (31-4 SU, 17-16-2 ATS)	-9.5	-10	U134.5	-520

Tipoff 

When: Sunday, March 24 at 8:40 p.m. EST 

Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tenn.

TV: TNT

Public Bets: 60% on Texas A&M 

Public Money: 68% on Texas A&M

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 23rd, 2024

Texas A&M vs. Houston In-Season Trends 

Take out the Iowa State game, a game in which Houston wasn’t anywhere near its best, and the Cougars have covered in four straight games. They weren’t a great bet down the stretch, however, because the books got wise to how Houston’s offense is optional.

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The Cougars have held six of their past eight opponents under 60 points, with only Iowa State and Oklahoma as the exceptions. Yet they failed to cover against Central Florida and Cincinnati because they only managed 67 points. Houston’s offense isn’t needed to win most nights; the Cougars’ defense does the job.

A&M has ridden its offense through this surge of six wins in seven games. The Aggies have cashed the over in each of their past six games, and they’ve now topped 90 points in three straight games. Nobody has even sniffed 90 against Houston; Oklahoma’s 85 was the closest anyone has come.

The Difference-Makers 

Wade Taylor shook off the demons of last year by turning in a sensational performance against Nebraska. But the shooting isn’t quite as impressive as it appears on first glance; the game against the Huskers was the first time that he had topped 50% with his shooting in the past four games. He usually puts up plenty of points, but it often takes a lot of shots for him to get his number.

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LJ Cryer won a national championship in 2021 with Baylor, and he’s the main factor the Cougars count on when they need offense. Usually, he doesn’t need to do anything special, but he and the rest of the team were totally off against Iowa State. He’ll need to be up to his standards here.

The Pick 

The question here is whether Texas A&M can shoot the ball anywhere near as well as it has for the past week. If the Aggies hit their shots, they’ll keep this game close and might even win it.

But that seems unlikely against this Houston defense. The Cougars have already seen what A&M can do and won’t make the mistake of letting their foot off the gas a second time. As long as the Cougars lock down the way they have most of the season, they should be the pick.

Dan’s Picks

Houston -10    Under 134.5