Take the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl

I’d like to thank the Lions for their backdoor cover last week, which is great because I was fully prepared to admonish them for blowing a 17-point lead seemingly in about three minutes.

Related: You Complete Guide to Prop Bets in the Super Bowl

I personally wanted Baltimore vs. Detroit as my Super Bowl matchup, and we got neither of them. Instead, it’s the matchup that nobody wanted: Niners and Chiefs again. Pat Mahomes leading a 34-year-old tight end and a bunch of randoms against a juggernaut led by the last pick in the draft. 

The Big Game

By the way, are people still not allowed to refer to the Super Bowl by name? Do we have to call it “The Big Game” or “The Final American Football Challenge” to avoid being sued by a ten billion dollar organization?

Roger Goodell is out here in a $12,000 Brioni suit looking for coins under the couch cushions. ALL YOUR CHANGE BELONGS TO US. 

So last week didn’t go as I hoped.Baltimore came out with the absolute worst game plan I’ve ever seen and Detroit just melted down at the worst possible time.

This is the worst case scenario.

Storylines

But there are still compelling storylines. If the Chiefs win, Mahomes and Andy Reid put themselves into rarified air, as there are quite a few QBs and head coaches with 2 Super Bowls, but only four of each with 3+ wins.

If you’re counting along at home, the quarterbacks are Brady (7x), Bradshaw and Montana (4x), and Troy Aikman (3x), while the head coaches are Belichick (6x), Chuck Noll (4x), Bill Walsh, and Joe Gibbs (3x).

This is a very exclusive club. And sure, Mecole Hardman is also going for his third ring, but nobody seems to care about the contributions of third-string wide receivers, which is sad and a poor reflection on our society. Quick, which position player has the most rings (and had the most of any player prior to Tom “Sonic the Hedgehog” Brady collecting all of his rings)? 

Charles Haley, of course! Feel free to Google “Charles Haley film room” to learn more about the practice habits of this great champion. 

On the other hand, if San Francisco wins, they tie the Patriots and Steelers for most Super Bowl wins all time with six, and Kyle Shanahan finally pushes his rock over Sisyphus’s hill and gets his title.

And that has big implications for his legacy, and it arguably pushes him into the Hall of Fame when all is said and done.

So who are we betting on in this matchup? I’m torn but I need to make a pick so let’s lock this in.

Toby’s Super Bowl Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+2)

All right, see you next year. 

J/k. Why am I picking Kansas City and the points here, despite San Francisco having perhaps the best overall roster of the past decade?

I have a few reasons. Let me start by saying that I am not highly confident in this pick and it does have a bit of a “leaning Denver over Seattle in 2014” feel to it. 

The KC Defense

For starters, none of these teams that San Francisco has squeaked by in recent weeks have anything approaching Kansas City’s defense.

Sure, their offense may be Mahomes and some guys, but their defense is stout, particularly their pass defense. They also have a DC in Steve Spagnuolo who I trust to come up with a good plan.

Is it the old Belichickian “let Thurman Thomas” get his yards strategy? Are there throws they think they can bait Brock Purdy into (similar to the Kyle Hamilton INT against Baltimore)?

I don’t know. If there is, I trust Spags more than most guys to find it. 

This is no slight against Brock Purdy. Purdy catches a lot of flak in some corners, and to a point I get it as this is an absolute juggernaut until Deebo Samuel gets injured and suddenly they are pedestrian.

Purdy Ain’t Pretty

Brock the Rock absolutely gets away with some bad decisions that are dropped or otherwise not capitalized on by the defense. On the other side of that coin, is a guy that generally just knows where to go with the ball. When he’s pressured, Purdy has just enough mobility to get himself away from it and set up a huge play.

It’s like every week you think whoever is playing the Niners has them stopped, only for Purdy to escape and complete a backbreaking conversion on 3rd and 14.

He also makes a few jaw-dropping touch throws on a weekly basis, floating a ball just over two linebackers and right into the hands of Brandon Aiyuk for 20 yards. At first, it does look and seem a bit lucky. But when you do it every single week, I have a hard time believing it’s luck.

This ain’t Jimmy Garoppolo.

Sure, Shanahan has a QB-friendly system that makes life relatively easy for quarterbacks, but Purdy executes it at a very high level. Yeah, it’s QB-friendly, but Trey Lance couldn’t execute it. Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t resist making that huge mistake every single week. Brock Purdy just does it better. 

More Discipline in Missouri

That said, I think that Kansas City’s defense can make the Niners pay for any mistakes they make and limit the big passing plays from San Francisco’s offense. Can they do this while preventing Christian McCaffery from breaking off a few 40 yard runs? 

If San Francisco has any weakness, it’s their non-Trent Williams offensive line.

Baltimore has a good offensive line and still got destroyed by the KC front, so that is something to pay attention to. If they have a second weakness, it’s probably their secondary.

Can Mahomes, Kelce and company do enough to score, say, 27 points? Can KC’s defense hold the 49ers just enough for this to be enough?

With very little confidence, I’m saying yes, I think they can. Can the Chief offensive line keep Bosa and the Niners front from forcing a game-changing turnover or two? Man, I’ve got myself re-thinking my own pick here.

I can see a narrow Chiefs win, or a narrow Niners win or a Niners blowout win. I don’t see a likely blowout win  scenario from Kansas City.

So normally in this case, I would take the Niners and lay the 2 points, as this is basically just a pick ‘em at such a small spread. But my gut says Kansas City, and I’m going to listen to it. 

One final note – if you think the NFL is scripted, and the Deep State is rigging the game so that Taylor Swift can steal your sister’s vote in the Missouri gubernatorial election, just bet on the Chiefs.

Profit from this! Take every cent you have and bet it on the Chiefs. The game is completely rigged, and you’re getting two points? Let’s double-up! This is a retirement opportunity, folks!