Suns vs. Mavericks Expert Pick

Suns vs. Mavericks Expert Pick - March 5, 2023

SUNS VS. MAVERICKS EXPERT PICK - MARCH 5, 2023 - Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly column where we break down some of the marquee matchups from this weekend’s slate of NBA games. The two teams we will discuss today are the Phoenix Suns (35-29) and the Dallas Mavericks (33-31). The Suns have the fourth-best record in the always competitive western conference, while the Mavericks are currently in the No. 6 spot.

Let’s look at this matchup to see which team has the edge in a showdown between conference rivals.

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Season Trends

The Suns come into this contest with two consecutive wins against the Charlotte Hornets (105-91) and the Chicago Bulls (125-104). Sure, neither of those teams is considered elite by any means, but you must beat the good and bad teams on your schedule, right? Along with that, the Suns acquired Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets prior to last month’s trading deadline.

At the time of the trade, Durant was recovering from an MCL injury. He has since joined the Suns’ lineup on March 1. In the team’s win over Charlotte, he scored 23 points on 10-for-15 shooting. He followed that up with a 20-point effort against the Bulls, converting seven of his 10 attempts from the floor. Simply put, KD can still be efficient even when his playing time is limited.

The Mavericks had dropped five of their previous six contests before notching a 133-126 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night. This was Dallas’ third-highest point total of the season. Luka Doncic (42 points) and Kyrie Irving (40 points) paced the Mavericks’ scoring attack. This marked the first time in franchise history in which two Mavericks scored at least 40 points in the same game.

Dallas has a .500 record across its last 10 games, while the Suns are 7-3 during that same stretch. Will the Suns end their four-game road trip with a victory or will the Mavericks be able to put together back-to-back wins for the first time since early February?

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Head-To-Head & Betting Trends

In 2020-21 and 2021-22, the Suns swept the season series 3-0. The Mavericks earned a measure of revenge, though, knocking off the Suns in Game 7 of last year’s conference semifinals by a 123-90 margin. There was a bunch of chirping back and forth between the two teams during that series, which means there is no love lost on either side.

Phoenix took the first meeting of the season between these teams on Oct. 19, escaping with a 107-105 victory. However, the Mavericks took the next two contests to the tune of 130-111 on Dec. 5 and 99-95 on Jan. 26. Given the fact that both units look a bit different since their last encounter, it will be interesting to see how these teams perform in this matchup and for the rest of the season as well.

The Picks

Over/Under

The opening O/U total was 231. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 233.5. These two teams are averaging a combined 226.6 points per contest.

The UNDER has a 4-1 mark in the Suns’ last five road games and a 6-2 record in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. Dallas is 33-31.

The UNDER holds a 5-2 record in the Suns’ last seven after allowing 100 or more points in the previous outing. The Sixers scored 126 points on Thursday night.

Lastly, the UNDER is 5-2 in the Suns’ last seven road games and 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last six instances in which they’ve played on two days of rest. It is also important to remember that the predicted 233.5 points total has only been reached once in the previous six meetings between these two ball clubs. That said, it is safe to go with the UNDER in this one.

Spread

The Mavericks opened as a consensus one-point favorite. That line has moved to 1.5.

Phoenix is 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games overall, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games in which their opponent scored more than 100 points in its previous outing. The Mavericks put up 133 points against Philly.

The Suns hold a 4-1-1 mark ATS in their last six instances in which they’ve allowed more than 100 points. Chicago produced 104 points on Friday night. Phoenix is also 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games in which its opponent allowed more than 100 points in its previous outing. The Mavs gave up 126 points to the Sixers.

Phoenix holds a 7-2 record ATS in its last nine Sunday games, and a 9-4 record ATS in its last 13 games that were played on one day of rest. Based on these metrics, I’m going with the Suns to cover (+1.5).

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in this contest is Mavericks forward Luka Doncic. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 32.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 32.5.

Doncic has played against the Suns 20 times in his career. He is averaging 25.1 points per contest. However, in two of his last three games against the Suns, he scored 35 and 33 points, respectively. Additionally, Doncic is averaging 33.1 points per contest over his last 10 outings. Let’s also remember that he is averaging a career-best 33.4 points per game this season.

That said, I’m going with Doncic to go OVER the 32.5 points total.

Suns vs. Mavericks Expert Pick – March 5, 2023