Steelers at Ravens Expert Pick – October 8, 2023

STEELERS AT RVENS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 8, 2023 – The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) return home this week hoping to bounce back from a devastating 30-6 loss to the Houston Texans. Heading into town are the AFC North division leading Baltimore Ravens (3-1) after a dominating 28-3 win over the Cleveland Browns. This bitter rivalry resumes Sunday at 1pm with first place up for grabs.

On paper that sounds nice, but these two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Ravens have what the Steelers crave, a hard-nosed philosophy on both offense and defense.

The Ravens’ defense has allowed the third-fewest points (58) and the third-fewest yards (1,043) to opposing offenses. The offense comes in ranked 14th (PFF) with quarterback Lamar Jackson becoming more comfortable with the new offensive scheme implemented by offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have no identity at all. A team that once prided itself on physicality is a shell of its former self.

After the blowout loss to the Texans head coach Mike Tomlin was quoted as saying “Hell yeah, we got to make some changes man.”

Related: Toby’s NFL Betting Preview for Week 5

The Steelers fanbase was hoping that meant the firing of the much-maligned offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Tomlin did not pull what would be an uncharacteristic move for an organization that hasn’t fired a coordinator mid-season since 1998. He concluded the Steelers needed to be more physical and put pads on during practice this week.

The local media and fan base are starting to question the direction of this team. The Steelers have had three playoff wins in the last decade and the current team does not look destined to change that anytime soon. 

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 2-2-0 ATS)	+2.5	+4.5	O38.5	+180
Baltimore Ravens (3-1-0 SU, 3-1-0 ATS)	-2.5	-4.5	U38.5	-218

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 8TH at 1:00 EDT

Where: Acrisure Stadium – Pittsburgh, PA

TV: CBS

Public Bets: 68% on Pittsburgh

Public Money: % on Pittsburgh

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 7, 2023

Steelers vs. Ravens In-Season Trends

The Ravens enter the game as solid road favorites (-4.5) and the money line (-218). The Ravens are 2-0 on the road with both against division opponents. If it weren’t for the crazy overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore would be the only undefeated AFC team.

The Steelers are 1-1 at home and 1-0 in the division. Both of Pittsburgh’s victories were by less than a touchdown, while both losses were by 20+ points. The Steelers offense has been inconsistent at best. They have scored at least 23 points twice but have also scored single digits in the other two games.

The Difference-Makers

Steelers quarterback Kenny Picket will start after being injured last week against the Texans. The running game showed signs of life last week before the game was out of hand. Running back Najee Harris rushed for 71 yards on 14 carries averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. A trend that needs to continue to keep the Ravens defense honest.

The Ravens are leading the AFC North despite being riddled with injuries all season. They are welcoming back receivers Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr., not to mention cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Lamar Jackson, who has a 124.1 passer rating in two games against division leading opponents, is looking to take advantage of a Steelers defense allowing the third-most yards in 2023.

The Pick

While a lot of time is spent pouring over the statistics, trends and injuries between these two teams it truly doesn’t matter. Despite less hype than we have seen in previous installments of Ravens’ Week, make no mistake, these teams hate each other. This is a rivalry in its truest form.

There is no love lost between Ravens head coach John Harbaugh and Tomlin and they will have their teams ready to play. Expect a low scoring affair with the Steelers pulling it out in the end.

Former defensive player of the year, T.J. Watt, is coming from a lackluster performance last week and will make the splash plays necessary to pull out the victory and perhaps save the season. If they don’t there will be a lot of soul searching for Tomlin heading into the BYE week. 

Mitch’s Pick

Steelers +4.5 Under 38.5 Lamar Jackson over 201.5 passing yards