Purdue vs. Michigan Expert Pick and Prediction – February 25, 2024 

PURDUE VS. MICHIGAN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 25, 2024 — There’s one basic rule in the Big Ten: you need to win your home games, because everywhere in the league is a tough place to play. And for the most part, Big Ten teams do exactly that.

Purdue, the league’s best team, truly makes Mackey Arena “their house”, owning a 14-0 mark in West Lafayette. Nebraska’s got a shot at an NCAA tournament bid because it has gone 16-1 in Lincoln. As a whole, the 13 best teams in the Big Ten are a combined 77-26 at home in league play, with no program worse than .500 in its own building.

And then there’s Michigan.

Ten Big Ten teams get to visit Ann Arbor this season, and other than Ohio State and Wisconsin, they’re glad they did. The Wolverines have looked lifeless in most of their league games, even when playing at home. Since beating Ohio State on Jan. 15, the Wolverines have gone 1-9 and none of the nine were closer than 10 points. Included in that was a 32-point embarrassment at Purdue, which is part of a laundry list of results that have fans calling for a change in Juwan Howard’s employment status.

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That should have Purdue wary of getting surprised. The Boilermakers have taken three losses, all in-conference. Two were completely understandable, given that Northwestern and Nebraska are both 8-0 at home this season. The third was Ohio State after firing Chris Holtmann. The Buckeyes played their best game of the year in taking Purdue down in a four-point survival.

The Boilers know they’ll be a top seed again. But they need the intimidation factor, and they need to make a statement to make that happen. Showing the Ohio State game was a fluke would make a strong statement that Purdue intends to be a force in March.

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The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Purdue (24-3 SU, 16-10-1 ATS)	-13.5	-13.5	O150.5	-1300
Michigan  (8-19 SU, 7-20 ATS)	U152.5	+13.5	U150.5	+725

Tipoff 

When: Sunday, February 25 at 2 p.m. EST

Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Mich.

TV: CBS

Public Bets: 78% on Purdue

Public Money: 66% on Purdue 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 24th, 2024 

Purdue vs. Michigan In-Season Trends 

In general, it takes a fired-up home team to take down Purdue. The Boilers haven’t been nearly as adept at covering the spread, however, failing to do so in four of their past seven contests. Purdue’s also been alternating overs and unders, and if the trend holds, the UNDER would become the play this time around.

Michigan’s been a solid first-half team at times, but the Wolverines tend to melt down in the second half as they run out of gas. One thing that’s pretty remarkable about Michigan: the Wolverines have yet to cover this season without winning the game. The only time their result failed to match the spread was a 17-point win over Eastern Michigan when they were giving 23.5. Otherwise, what you see is what you get with Michigan. 

The Difference-Makers 

With Purdue, you could start and end this every time with Zach Edey. The center has no equal in college basketball, and the Big Ten has been trying and failing for years to find any solution for him. Now that he can shoot free throws, there really is no defense for what he brings to the table.

Jaelin Llewellyn was the only real offensive threat the Wolverines had in the first meeting, as Purdue cut off all of their shooting options. Having Dug McDaniel back should help (he’s ineligible in road games because of academic issues), but it might not be enough to change things much.

The Pick 

Maybe the presence of Purdue wakes Michigan up enough to make this interesting. I personally doubt it. The Wolverines have looked lifeless far too often this season, and facing the best team in the conference isn’t going to help those matters.

Michigan just doesn’t have the personnel needed to match up with a juggernaut like this. Maybe the Wolverines keep it tight for a half, but Purdue should be the pick.

Dan’s Picks

Purdue -13.5   Over 150.5