Creighton vs. St. John’s Expert Pick and Prediction – February 25, 2024 

CREIGHTON VS. ST. JOHN’S EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 25, 2024 — IThere’s only one reason why St. John’s still has a shot at an NCAA tournament bid: it plays in the Big East. The Red Storm still have opportunities at 15-12 because they’ve taken no bad losses, own a season sweep of Villanova and have been right there with the likes of Connecticut, Creighton and Marquette.

But St. John’s hasn’t beaten any of them. And that’s why this is their last chance. The Red Storm’s final three games before the Big East tournament are Butler, DePaul and Georgetown. Beating the Bulldogs won’t move the needle, and the Blue Demons and Hoyas are pure land mines.

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Beating Creighton would matter, and the Bluejays could be at their most vulnerable. Creighton just whacked Connecticut by 19 in Omaha for its fourth straight win, and there’s a chance Greg McDermott’s team isn’t focused on this game. The Bluejays know they’re in the field and likely looking at a No. 3 seed, and this is a prime letdown spot for a team that can’t realistically catch Connecticut for the Big East title.

Creighton escaped by a single point in Omaha. If the Bluejays aren’t primed for this game, St. John’s might not be dead just yet.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Creighton (20-7 SU, 14-13 ATS)	-2	-2.5	O152.5	-130
St. John’s  (15-12 SU, 11-16 ATS)	U154	+2.5	U152.5	+110

Tipoff 

When: Sunday, February 25 at Noon EST 

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York 

TV: CBS

Public Bets: 68% on Creighton 

Public Money: 52% on Creighton 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 24th, 2024 

Creighton vs. St. John’s In-Season Trends 

There’s a reason why Rick Pitino’s been so frustrated with his team: the Red Storm aren’t getting wins, and they’re not performing against good teams. St. John’s has just one cover in its past seven, and that was DePaul. The Red Storm also have a tendency to cover in victories almost exclusively: St. John’s has only covered twice all season without winning the game.

Creighton’s been known for its defense, but the Bluejays have hit the gas ever since their loss at Connecticut. Since that game, Creighton hasn’t scored less than 78 points, and the totals have matched that.

The Bluejays have played to the OVER six times in their past eight games, and the two exceptions came because Butler and Xavier couldn’t crack the Creighton defense.

The Difference-Makers 

This appears to be a battle of the big men. Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner came up with 18 points in the first meeting, which allowed the Bluejays to survive a terrible night shooting the ball. Normally, the Jays lead the nation in mid-range shooting, and they rank second in interior offense.

St. John’s counters with Joel Soriano, who’s one of the main reasons the Red Storm lead the nation in second chance conversions. Soriano and Kalkbrenner will battle each other all game, and whoever has the stronger performance on the glass will likely carry his team to a victory.

The Pick 

I’m worried about the letdown possibility. I also know that St. John’s is a desperate team, and desperate teams sometimes come up with huge performances. But I can’t help but notice the trends each team carries into this game.

Creighton is hot, having won four straight and gotten better each time it takes the floor. St. John’s was fortunate that it didn’t take a loss home from Washington against hapless Georgetown. Since starting 4-1 in the Big East, the Red Storm has exactly one win against teams other than Georgetown and DePaul.

The line’s not enough to get me to bite on St. John’s, even in the Garden. They’ve failed to cover against Seton Hall, Connecticut, Marquette and Providence, and Creighton shouldn’t be any different.

 

Dan’s Picks

Creighton -2.5   Over 152.5