Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Expert Pick – December 10, 2023

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. DALLAS COWBOYS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 10, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

After an earlier look at Detroit v Chicago, my other game of the week features the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) going on the road to take on the Dallas Cowboys (9-3). In an earlier meeting between these teams, the Eagles emerged victorious with a 28-23 win.

Now, with first place in the division at stake, will the Cowboys hold serve on their home turf, or will the Eagles sweep the season series?

Without further delay, let us dive into this matchup to see which team has the edge and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 8:20 PM ET

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Eagles Bounce Back From An Embarrassing Week 13 Loss?

The Eagles come into this matchup having won five of their last six games. Their lone loss during that stretch was a 42-19 butt-kicking at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers. Jalen Hurts was 26-of-45 for 298 yards and one touchdown.

Although Hurts completed passes to eight different receivers, it was not enough to keep pace with a motivated Niners squad that was looking to even the score after last year’s 31-7 loss in the conference championship game. Look for the Eagles to play with a chip on their shoulder after having their heads handed to them last week.

Will The Dallas Cowboys Hold Serve On Their Home Turf?

Dallas comes into this matchup having won each of its last four contests. In their Week 13 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, the Cowboys trailed for a good portion of the second half before rallying for a 41-35 win. This victory extended their home win streak to 14 games on the heels of defeating an opponent with a winning record for the first time this season.

Following Philly’s 28-23 win over Dallas in Week 9, the teams were separated by two-and-a-half games in the standings. At that point, the Eagles looked like the team to beat not only in the division but in the conference as well. However, if Dallas can hold serve on its home turf,  the race for the top seed in the NFC would be an interesting one going forward.

Now that we have set the table for this divisional matchup, here is a look at some betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Cowboys opened as a consensus three-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved slightly to 3.5. Both squads have played well against the spread this year. Philadelphia is 7-3-2 while Dallas is 8-4. But here are a few reasons why you should consider going with the home team to cover in this matchup.

• The Eagles are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games against Dallas.
• Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in their last five road contests against the Cowboys.
• The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Dallas boasts an impressive 10-2 record against the spread in its last 12 December games.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 48.5 points. The line has climbed up a bit to 51.5 points, with the over garnering 83 percent of the cash and 79 percent of the tickets.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Eagles’ last five games.
• In Philadelphia’s last nine matchups against NFC-East opponents, the OVER has prevailed seven times.
• The OVER total has cashed in seven times in Philadelphia’s last 11 games it has played in December.
• In the Cowboys’ last six games, the OVER has prevailed five times.
• The OVER total has hit for Dallas all six times in its last six matchups against Philadelphia.
• The last five times Dallas played on a Sunday; the OVER total hit four times.
• The two teams have exceeded the 51.5-point threshold for this matchup in four of the last six meetings.

Prediction: OVER 51.5 points

Player Prop Bet

A quarterback’s performance carries a lot of weight in determining if a team will win or lose in any matchup, and this game is no exception. With that sentiment in mind, my key player to watch for the Eagles is Jalen Hurts. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for 254.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 254.5 yards.

In five career games against the Cowboys, Hurts is averaging 207.8 yards per contest. Ironically, when these teams met back on Nov. 5, Hurts finished with 207 passing yards. On the season, Hurts has amassed 2,995 yards through 12 games, which averages out to 249.6 yards per outing.

Hurts finished with 298 yards in the last matchup against Dallas, but he is averaging just 249.8 passing yards per outing in six road contests this season. Although Hurts has exceeded the projected passing yard total for this matchup seven times in 12 games, all the trends above suggest going with the “under” for Hurts is the best option.

Prediction: Jalen Hurts UNDER 254.5 yards

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott currently has the same -115 odds of throwing for more than or less than 301.5 yards. Prescott has played against the Eagles 12 times during his career. He is averaging 260.9 yards per outing. On the season, Prescott is averaging 269.5 yards per game.

Now, this is where things get a bit interesting.

Through the team’s first six games, Prescott had ZERO 300-yard games. However, in his last six outings, Prescott has produced four 300-yard games, with all of them exceeding the 301.5-yard threshold for this matchup.

Additionally, Prescott is averaging 309 passing yards per outing at home compared to just 230 yards per game on the road. In the Nov. 5 matchup between these two teams, Prescott finished with 374 passing yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Based on the recent body of work, taking the “over” for Prescott looks like a sure thing.

Prediction: Dak Prescott OVER 301.5 passing yards