Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Expert Pick – December 10, 2023

DETROIT LIONS VS. CHICAGO BEARS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 10, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of my games of the week features the Chicago Bears (4-8) hosting the Detroit Lions (9-3). These two teams squared off in Week 11, with the Lions rallying from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter en route to a 31-26 victory.

Will the Lions sweep the season series, or can the Bears finally string together consecutive wins for the first time in over two years?

Let’s dive in to see which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Solider Field, Chicago, IL

TV: FOX

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Bears Finally Get That Elusive Second Straight Win?

For just the second time this season, it can be said that the Bears come into a matchup having won two of their past three contests. This includes a 16-13 victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 10 and an underwhelming 12-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12.

Don’t get me wrong, a win IS a win no matter what.  But a three-point victory against the worst team in the league is not anything to be excited about. Additionally, a two-point win against a division foe with a backup quarterback under center wasn’t overly impressive, either.

The good news is the Bears are coming off a bye week and they are at full strength. Second, Chicago knows it should have won that game between these teams a few weeks ago. With that loss still somewhat fresh in their collective psyche, here’s to hoping that they can start and finish the game strong.

Detroit Lions Eyeing First Division Crown In 30 Years

Detroit Lions Offensive Stats                   Detroit Lions Defensive Stats
Scoring: 27.3 PPG – 5th                                     Scoring: 23.8 PPG – 23rd
Total Yards: 411.3 YPG – 2nd                           Yards Allowed: 322.4 YPG – 14th
Passing: 274.0 YPG – 4th                             Passing Yards Allowed: 229.3 YPG – 21st
Rushing: 137.3 YPG – 4th                            Rushing Yards Allowed: 93.1 YPG – 5th

Meanwhile, we have a Lions team that has played well this season for the most part. Sure, they do not look as dominant as they did when they jumped out to a 6-2 record.

On the flip of the narrative, Detroit has posted three wins across their past four outings.  Let’s also not forget, barring an unforeseen collapse, the Lions are on pace to win their first divisional title in 30 years.

Not only that, Detroit is in a three-way tie for the second-best record in the NFC. With that in mind, look for the Lions to come out and play with urgency and purpose from the start.

Next up, here is a look at some key betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

The Lions opened as a consensus five-point favorite. At the time of this writing the line has moved to 3.5 points. Here is a look at why picking the road team to cover is the best way to go.

• The Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 outings.
• Detroit is 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against Chicago.
• In their last seven road contests, the Lions are 6-1 against the spread.
• Detroit is also an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven December games.
• The Lions have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against Chicago.
• Chicago is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 matchups against NFC-North opponents.

Yes, the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six Week 14 contests.  Unfortunately, most of the trends point toward Detroit covering the spread more so than Chicago. This especially holds being that the Bears have not beaten the Lions in December since 2012.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 46 points. The line has come down a bit to 43 points, with the “Over” garnering 66 percent of the cash and 69 percent of the tickets.

• The OVER total has hit five times in the Lions’ last six outings.
• In four of Detroit’s last six road games against the Bears, the OVER total prevailed four times.
• The OVER total has hit seven times in Chicago’s last nine December games.
• Chicago and Detroit combined for 57 points when these teams met three weeks ago, easily exceeding the points total for this matchup.
• Lastly, these two teams have exceeded the points threshold for this matchup seven times in the last 11 meetings.

Prediction: OVER 43 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this game is Bears receiver, D.J. Moore.  He currently has -115 odds of finishing with more than 70.5 receiving yards and -115 of finishing with less than 70.5 yards.

When these teams squared off three weeks ago, Moore caught seven passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. He followed that up with 11 receptions for 104 yards against the Vikings in Week 12.

Furthermore, Moore is averaging 83.5 yards per outing this season. Given these trends, going with the “over” for Moore is a good choice.

Prediction: D.J. Moore OVER 70.5 receiving yards