Packers vs. Giants Expert Pick – December 11, 2023

PACKERS VS. GIANTS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 11 2023 – Tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup features the Green Bay Packers (6-6) and New York Giants (4-8).

The Giants have won two in a row and are now 2-2 with undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy Devito as the starter. The Packers are on a three-game winning streak with quarterback Jordan Love tossing eight touchdowns with zero interceptions in that span. 

Related: Johnny’s Quick Picks for Monday, December 11

The Odds

Monday Night Matchup

It’s difficult not to jump on the Packers bandwagon after Love and company carved up the Kansas City Chief’s defense last week.

They have defeated the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions during this streak and there is hope that they have hit on their next franchise quarterback.

The Giants are technically alive in the playoff race and are pleasantly surprised with Devito’s play the last couple weeks against the struggling Washington Commanders and New England Patriots.

The Packers are one of the youngest teams in the league and will surely provide a harder matchup for G-Men. 

How the Giants cover

The Giants will have a difficult time with the resurgent Packers. There was speculation that quarterback Tyrod Taylor would regain the starting job after coming off injured reserve this week with a rib injury.

Devito remained the starter after posting passer ratings of 137.7 and 103.9 with zero interceptions during the win streak. They will also rely on a heavily motivated Saquon Barkley.

“We’re in this (expletive), to be honest,” said Barkley. “I’m going to keep it real. We’re not looking too far, we’re not looking in on the hunt or the playoff pictures, but we take care of what we’ve got to take care of, everyone can say what they want about the season. But it’s week whatever (14) and everything we want is still there. So, we don’t need any extra motivation. Every game is a critical game no matter what, but especially now.”

The Giants’ defense has been bolstered the last couple weeks by the play of their leading tacklers, inside linebacker Bobby Okereke and safety Xavier McKinney.

They will play almost every down and will mirror Love at different times to try and force mistakes.  This defense has eight takeaways in their two-game win streak.

How the Packers cover

When the Packers were 2-5 coming off a four-game losing streak earlier this season the offensive line was among the worst units in the NFL.

It is now a strength of this team and Love has been remarkable when facing the blitz in recent games. Last week against the Chiefs, Love was blitzed 41.0 percent of his dropbacks and exploited them for 12-of-16 for 97 yards, once touchdown and a rating of 110.7, according to Pro Football Focus.

Only the Vikings have blitzed more than the Giants with defensive coordinator Don Martindale. 

“Coach Martindale’s a guy that I’ve had experience going against quite a few times when he was in Baltimore,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He kicked the crap out of us when I was in Tennessee, and he was in Baltimore. That was a humbling day, but he’s a guy that he does a great job just putting people in position.”

On the flipside the Giants offensive line is historically awful with their quarterbacks being sacked 69 times.

The record is 78 by Arizona in 1997 and we have five games to go. Expect pass rushers Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark to apply pressure all night long.

Joe Barry’s defensive unit for Green Bay has pressured the quarterback on 23.7 percent of the dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate in the league, according to SI.com.

The Pick 

Expect the Giants to attempt to control the clock with a short passing game and a heavy dose of Saquan Barkley. The problem is Barkley has been pedestrian with 195 yards and zero touchdowns averaging 5 YPC over the previous three games.

It will take the Devito, aka Jersey Boy, having the best game of his young career to keep New York’s playoff chances alive.

Coach Lafleur knows how to win in December as his Packers are 14-0 since he took over the team in 2019. Don’t expect a letdown after defeating the defending Super Bowl champions last week. The Packers win 27-13.

Mitch’s Picks

Packers      -6 Over           37