Oregon vs. South Carolina Expert Pick and Prediction – March 21, 2024
OREGON VS. SOUTH CAROLINA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 21, 2024 — Was the loss to Auburn a blip, or a siren? South Carolina has long felt like a team that was set to crash in the first round of the tournament, as the Gamecocks really don’t match up to their seed. The record says that they belong at this level, but the metrics don’t match that at all.
And that’s because when things go wrong for South Carolina, they really go off the rails. Against teams that love to run, the Gamecocks proved pretty helpless pretty quickly.
The SEC features a pair of such teams in the Iron Bowl squads, Alabama and Auburn. In three matchups with the Crimson Tide and the Tigers, the Gamecocks went 0-3 and got outscored by an average of 87-54. South Carolina proved so overmatched by Auburn that the Tigers’ 101 points against the Gamecocks on Feb. 14 came within shouting distance of the 116 points South Carolina combined to score in two meetings with Auburn.
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Can Oregon take advantage? The Ducks don’t run anywhere near as well as the Alabama schools. But they also haven’t been fully healthy all season. They also feature more size than what South Carolina is used to seeing. N’Faly Dante has a three-inch advantage on anyone in the Gamecocks’ starting lineup, which could limit South Carolina’s rebounding.
There’s also experience: Oregon coach Dana Altman is 7-0 in the NCAA tournament first round as the Ducks’ leader.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Oregon(23-11 SU, 16-18 ATS) |
O133 |
-1 |
O133.5 |
-120 |
South Carolina(26-7 SU, 23-10 ATS) |
-1.5 |
+1 |
U133.5 |
+100 |
Tipoff
When: Thursday, March 21 at 4:05 p.m. EST
Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
TV: TNT
Public Bets: Unavailable
Public Money: Unavailable
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 20th, 2024
Oregon vs. South Carolina In-Season Trends
One thing to know about South Carolina is that they usually don’t fail twice in a row. The Gamecocks have gone 5-1 ATS this season after a loss, with their only consecutive loss coming to LSU after falling to Auburn. Of course, South Carolina is coming off a loss to Auburn here, which bodes well for Oregon.
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Prior to this game, the Ducks were a terrible bet, failing to cover in 10 of their past 11 games. But Oregon tends to turn it on in the tournament, and the Ducks came up with a pair of covers against Arizona and Colorado on their way into the tournament. Oregon hasn’t trended well this season, but it’s difficult to go against Dana Altman in a tournament game.
The Difference-Makers
Having N’Faly Dante healthy and on the court makes Oregon dangerous inside. The Ducks have an edge on the glass and in their interior scoring with how they play, and their second chance conversions could be pretty high in this matchup. South Carolina will try to counter with power rather than height, but there’s only so much you can do when you’re giving away three inches.
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Meechie Johnson has to take care of the ball here. South Carolina runs into problems when it plays too fast because the Gamecocks commit far too many turnovers at a quick clip. Oregon will likely pressure the Gamecocks here, as the Ducks understand that they’ve got to force mistakes. Johnson has to make sure he’s getting the ball where it needs to be.
The Pick
South Carolina has felt overrated all season, and it’s got a bad matchup here in an underseeded Oregon. The Ducks ended up here because of injuries; they weren’t at the talent level of an 11 seed. And now that they’re at full strength, they’re in position to show what they could have been.
That’s bad news for South Carolina. I’m backing the Ducks.
Dan’s Picks |
South Carolina -24.5Over 133.5 |
