NFL Wildcard Weekend: Prop Picks for Saturday's Games
NFL WEEK WILDCARD WEEKEND: PROP PICKS FOR SATURDAY'S GAMES - The wildcard weekend is upon us. Get your popcorn, Coca-Cola, and DraftKings account ready for this wild weekend of NFL action.
The spreads for these games don't offer much value. Many of these spread are huge for playoff games, which is a product of the 7 team structure. Some of these teams (Miami, Baltimore) have some quarterback issues and others (Seattle) can't play defense. Simply put: the favorites could roll and we could be stuck with a lot of losing tickets, bad beats, and backdoor covers.
Let us run from temptation and look at some play prop picks for the Saturday games. I believe both of these picks offer great value for the savvy bettor.
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Darnell Taylor Over 0.75 Sacks (+180)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Kickoff: 4:30 pm EST on FOX
You won't find many pros on this prop, which is why we like it.
I've been trolling the Internet for some good prop bets for the Seahawks/Niners game and most of what I've seen are receiving yards overs for the Niners incredible weapons. I don't love these plays because the juice isn't great. Brock Purdy has been playing well, but I worry that the moment might be too big for him. I don't like relying on receiver's YAC if the quarterback is not a known entity.
Here's something we do know about Purdy: he takes a lot of sacks.
Since Week 13, he's taken 11 sacks. The Cardinals sacked him 4 times last week and the Commanders got to him 3 times in Week 16. He can't move very well in the pocket and, like many young QBs, he holds onto the ball too long.
The Seahawks may have a porous secondary, but their defensive front is formidable. Darnell Taylor has 9.5 sacks on the season for Seattle and he's been heating up lately. He has 4.5 sacks in the last three weeks of play, including 2.5 during Week 16 against the Jets, who are not known for their fleet-of-foot quarterbacks.
In a big spot like this one and a QB like Purdy -- someone who will take a few sacks instead of risking a bad decision -- I love Taylor to grab one here.
Over 0.75 Sacks (+180)
Travis Etienne Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Kickoff: 8:15 pm EST on NBC
This line benefits from Etienne's frustrating performance last Saturday against the Titans. Etienne rushed for 17 yards on 7 attempts against Tennessee's first ranked rush defense. The line couldn't form a hole and Etienne never broke free for a rush of more than 7 yards.
That hasn't been the trend from Jacksonville. Doug Pederson has relied on Etienne to run the rock and control the clock. This has also taken some pressure off of Trevor Lawrence, who looked lost at times last week in the divisional round clincher.
The Titans game notwithstanding, Etienne has been very productive for the Jags. Etienne ran for 108 yards against Houston in Week 17, 83 yards against the Jets in Week 16, and 103 yards against the Cowboys in Week 15.
The Chargers stink against the run. Per Football Outsiders, Los Angeles ranks 29th in DVOA against the run. In Week 3, the Chargers gave up 151 rushing yards to the Jags. More recently, they gave up 201 rushing yards to Denver in Week 18, 166 rushing yards in the Rams in Week 17, and 127 rushing yards to the Titans in Week 15.
And before you ask: Joey Bosa played in Weeks 17 and 18. Bosa will be a factor, but we aren't looking for 150 yards on the ground. Etienne can get past 76 yards with Bosa starting for the Chargers.
Dough Pederson tried to stick with the run game against the Titans and it didn't work. Look for him to rely on Etienne to eat tonight. I would even recommend escalating this if you can. DraftKings is offering Etienne 100+ rushing yards at +220.
Over 76.5 Rushing Yard (-130)