Rams vs. Packers Odds and Best Bets
RAMS VS. PACKERS ODDS AND BEST BETS - The Los Angeles Rams (4-9) travel to wintry Lambeau to face off against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (5-8) on Monday Night Football. The lined opened last week at PK and quickly swung in the Packers favor at -7.5.
Many bettors see this as Rodgers' last gasp as a Green Bay Packer. Maybe the magic will fly against a hobbled Rams team and their waiver-wire quarterback.
John Fredericks has joined me for this Monday night game to give you his picks. Our business parter in crime, Nate, is nowhere to be found ever since Argentina won the World Cup. #freenate
Some trends for the sickos:
- Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December.
- Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 road games.
- Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- T favorite is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings against these two teams.
Kickoff
When: Monday 8:15 pm, December 19th, 2022
Where:Â Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
How to Watch:Â ESPN
Public Bets:Â Packers, 58%
Public Money:Â Packers, 60%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of December 19, 2022
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Rams(4-9) |
PK |
+7.5 |
o39.5 |
+280 |
Packers(5-8) |
u41 |
-7.5 |
u39,5 |
-375 |
Jack's Pick
This game is a difficult one to handicap, because the Packers have underperformed all year and the Rams are so riddled with injuries that the team fields question marks at all the major positions. There are some trends that suggest fading the Rams. Rodgers is 9-3-1 (75%) ATS when coming off a bye. He's 23-11-1 ATS (68%) at home in primetime. Those trends look good, but I don't want to play situational wagering with this Packers team. Rodgers may be a beast, but he doesn't have the support this year and the Packers are going backwards.
Per Football Outsiders, the Packers have the worst rushing defense in the league (12.4% Rush DVOA) with the 7th lowest variance (2.7%). That means the Packers defense is reliably bad. With the Rams starting waiver wire hero, Baker Mayfield, I would think the Rams would rely on Cam Akers and the running game to move the ball. However, you need an offensive line to run and the Rams don't have that. They rank 27th in Rushing DVOA (15.1%) and have struggled to get Cam Akers going at all.
Cam Akers
Akers has not bee effective for the Rams this year. He ranks dead last in DYAR among running backs with over 100 rushes. He's also 40th in EYds, which means he's not making the most of his attempts. PFF ranks Akers 144th among all rushers with a 65.5 rating in the running game and a 15.1 rating in the fumbles category. Akers was so low on the list that I had to download PFF's chart as a .CSV in order to locate him.
So what happens when a miserable run defense faces a bad rushing attack? Nobody finds the end zone. There is a reason this under dropped below 40. The Rams are going to struggle to score and the Packers play at the third slowest rate in the NFL, taking 29.92 seconds per snap. Take the under here and, while you're at it, fade Cam Akers rushing yards.
Jack's Pick |
Under 39.5Cam Akers under 54.5 rush yds (-115) |
John's Pick
When is Green Bay going to stop messing around and pummel someone at home?
The Rams are running on fumes with half a team, no Donald and a Panthers reject third string practice squad quarterback.
For the love of God, can Aaron Rodgers just have one good game? The Pack need to win out and get a little help to claw back into the playoff picture.
Don’t be telling me about Mayfield magic. He’s one and done.
John's Pick |
Packers -7.5 |
Let’s go titans!