NFL Divisional Round: Picks for Every Game
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND: PICKS FOR EVERY GAME – Well what do you know, looks like “Big Game” Wreathway showed up for the playoffs.
After a rough start picking Cleveland only to watch Houston tear them to shreds, the rest of the games broke my way and resulted in a 5-1 week. 5-1! That’s good! I’ve had a pretty good few weeks to bring my bankroll back to respectability. Here’s to hoping to ride that wave for another week.
Wild Card Round Total: 5-1
Baby is sleeping well knowing that zaddy is out here crushing wild card spreads, so that gives me some time to cook up some fresh new guesses for the upcoming divisional round.
And what a round it is, as only one game has a spread under 6 points. I don’t see three blowouts, so you can guess which sides I might be taking.
GAME 1: HOUSTON +9.0 @ BALTIMORE
Once again we get a chance to bet against a heavy favorite feeling heavy postseason pressure, and once again I am all over it.
Baltimore isn’t in the same boat as Miami and Dallas, as they have beaten the absolute tar out of good teams all season. However, we’ve all heard the “Lamar can’t win in the playoffs!” stuff. Until they quiet this with their performance, I’m not going to take them giving 9 points.
This is a crazy amount for a good team on a bit of a heater that already played them pretty tough in the season opener.
Yeah, week 1 looks like an easy 25-9 Raven win. But it really wasn’t. I recall Baltimore having a bear of a time moving the ball until they starting to break through in the 3rd quarter, and two of their scoring drives came on short fields. This was also CJ Stroud’s very first game, so he wasn’t “CJ STROUD!” yet.
He was just some rookie named Coleridge (damn that’s a cool name).
Do I think Baltimore wins this one? Yeah, I do. But I do think it will be a one-score game and I would not be utterly shocked if Houston pulls this one off.
GAME 2: GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO -9.5
This is the only game I don’t like this week, and the only one I’m not putting actual money on.
I have, however, bet the over (O/U 50.5), as Green Bay very often just completely forgets how to play defense and San Francisco is a juggernaut.
The only teams that generally slow the Niners down are the ones with elite defenses, and that is certainly not Green Bay. So gun to my head, I’m yelling out “OH NO PLEASE DON’T SHOOT ME I HAVE A FAMILY!!!”. After the assailant assures me that he only wants my pick for this game, I stammer out a frightened “San Francisco minus 9.5?” and hope that I survive this ordeal.
And hey, guess what, I’m still here, having survived this terrifying hypothetical.
I like Jordan Love and I had to defend some atrocious play early in the season, but he eventually made me look good and he’s played excellent for much of the last two months. I don’t think he’s “drag the Packers into San Francisco and beat the Niners”-level good, however. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong but in that case I’m probably getting shot.
GAME 3: TAMPA BAY +6.0 @ DETROIT
Alright, yes Detroit is good, and yes Jared Goff has played great for most of the season, but I’m still not a true believer and this is also a good defense he’ll be facing.
I did think the Rams would win straight up, and I also would like them to beat Detroit more than I like Tampa to do so for whatever reason. That being said, will I take a sneaky good team getting 6 against a favorite that I’m skeptical of? Yes, absolutely. I love Tampa and the points here. I also HATE Goff against a coach like Bowles who will pressure him relentlessly.
Let’s talk about beatin’ Goff for a second. From the start, Jared Goff has thrown dimes all over the field whenever things are going right and the receivers who are supposed to be open are indeed open. A Goff offense in good times is the March of Dimes down the field.
They should put his face on a coin. His performance in 2017 against Minnesota was like a 3-hour Rembrandt painting. He was “on one”, as the kids would say.
The Inevitable Goff Meltdown
But…the second things start to go a little haywire…Goff melts down. We all saw Dak Prescott looking lost last week, and that’s Goff if you create similar conditions.
This is the reason McVay moved on from him, the play when things get difficult. Fortunately the Lions are sheltered from any light breezes inside of the dome this week but we saw it in the Super Bowl against New England so these conditions can be created without the weather doing the heavy lifting.
Goff can absolutely come out firing these next few weeks and re-write his narrative. However, until he does, just like Lamar – I’m taking the underdog and the points.
Side note, I know you’ve read this in many places but man, we’re seriously going to get one of redemption Goff or redemption Baker in the NFC Championship game. Wild times.
GAME 4: KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO -3
This one is just a gut feeling. Buffalo seems to be a superior team to Kansas City this season, and we finally get to see Kansas City hit the road for a playoff game.
Kansas City has struggled for much of the season, and beating a fraudulent team like the Dolphins inside of a freezer doesn’t change my opinion of them. So you beat the Miami Dolphins in the playoffs in negative-70 degree weather….that don’t impress me much. Oh oh ooohhhh. Sure you beat the Fins but can you, win in Buffffff. Alright alright I’ll stop singing Shania Twain songs in my posts before Jack fires me directly into the Sun.
Josh Allen has been turnover prone this year but many of his turnovers are downfield shots on 3rd and long and he’s been playing much cleaner to close out the season. I know KC has a great defense, and I do absolutely believe that Mahomes plus this defense is more than enough to win this game, I just can’t shake the feeling that Buffalo wins this one going away.
Here’s hoping that these bets increase my net worth.