NC State vs. South Carolina Expert Pick and Prediction – April 5, 2024 

NC STATE VS. SOUTH CAROLINA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 5, 2024 — While Caitlin Clark, LSU and Connecticut have soaked up the oxygen in the women’s tournament, South Carolina has quietly made its run at history. Only nine teams ever have managed to run through a women’s basketball season without a loss, and South Carolina sits two wins from joining that exclusive club.

The Gamecocks were also two wins away last year, when Clark and Iowa ended their season in the Final Four. That team surprised nobody by arriving in Dallas unscathed, as it returned most of the 2022 national champions. This year’s Gamecock squad has stunned everyone, including coach Dawn Staley. South Carolina replaced all five starters, yet the team didn’t miss a beat. The Iowa loss remains the only time South Carolina has been beaten since March 2022.

Related: Women’s Basketball Betting Boom

And yet, there’s a sense that people might be overrating South Carolina. The Gamecocks looked very human in getting past Indiana and Oregon State on their way to Cleveland, owing in part to their immaturity. South Carolina is immensely talented but young, and its unbeaten record is more a testament to talent and Staley’s coaching.

This time might be a problem, as one of the few players who didn’t return in 2023 is now wearing an opposing jersey. Saniya Rivers was a point guard on the 2022 Gamecock national title team, and she now mans the offense for NC State. The battle-tested Wolfpack upset the apple cart to get here, taking down Stanford in the Sweet 16 and overpowering the Texas defense in the regional final. As long as State’s getting guard play of this caliber, getting double digit points just isn’t enough respect.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
NC State (31-6 SU)	O139.5	+11.5	O139.5	+600
South Carolina (36-0 SU)	-11.5	-11.5	U139.5	-1400

Tipoff 

When: Friday, April 5 at 7 p.m. EST 

Where: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 31st, 2024

NC State vs. South Carolina In-Season Trends 

With State, the big question is can you slow down the Wolfpack’s guard play? State’s magic number all year has been 63 points; when the Pack get there, they’re 29-1. When they fail, they’re 2-5. Only Notre Dame and Duke, teams that force you down to a crawl, did State fail to get its offense going and still find a way to win (and notably, the Wolfpack split with both the Irish and the Blue Devils).

On the other side, South Carolina has looked really shaky as of late. The Gamecocks appeared unbeatable through the first five halves of this tournament, but then Indiana turned the tables and managed a furious comeback. The Gamecocks have not covered in either of the past two games (and they’re 1-3 ATS in the tournament because they were giving Presbyterian a ridiculous 53.5 in round 1 and “only” won by 52), and they’ve looked more vulnerable as the job has gotten more difficult.

South Carolina’s schedule was not particularly strong, and it’s fair to wonder if State’s tougher schedule will carry the day.

The Difference-Makers 

How do you survive an anaconda attack? If you’re NC State and Aziaha James, you never let it wrap itself around you in the first place. State did something few teams did all year against Texas: it took the early lead and never let the Longhorns pull even. James was the reason, as she shot 7-for-9 from behind the arc and prevented any chance of Texas putting the squeeze on the Wolfpack. James, Rivers and Madison Hayes all have the ability to take over a game from the arc, and getting hot early will make a big difference.

South Carolina will try to wear the Wolfpack down with its depth. While some teams have gotten to this point with just five or six players (hi, Connecticut), the Gamecocks go nine deep and can count on anyone to take the game over. Kamilla Cardoso is the biggest key to the offense, though, as she’s the most consistent performer and won’t be the one dealing with the NC State guards.

The Pick 

South Carolina’s got to be looking wistfully at the other side of the bracket. It’s strange to say that someone would actually want to play Iowa or Connecticut over NC State, but both of those matchups would actually be better for the Gamecocks than this one. Connecticut doesn’t have the depth and Iowa doesn’t have the abundance of scorers that force teams away from defending a star.

State has both. The Wolfpack have already been through several tough battles and proved their mettle in a tough regional. This line’s too high, and the Wolfpack might even be the team that ruins South Carolina’s season at the penultimate hurdle.

Dan’s Picks

NC State +11.5    Over 139.5