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NBA Wednesday Action: Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers (+1.5) (o/u 236)

The Odds

Matchup

Open

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Total

Moneyline

Timberwolves

(9-8)

-2

-1.5

o236

-120

Pacers
(10-6)

u235

+1.5

u236

-101

 

The Details

Tipoff: Wednesday, November 23rd at 7:00 pm EST

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

How to Watch: BSIN

Public Bets: Pacers, 51%

Public Money: Pacers, 81%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of 11/23

The Word

The Minnesota Timberwolves (9-8) travel to Indiana to face the streaking Pacers (10-6) in a Wednesday night matchup.

The Pacers are owners of a five game win streak and are currently 4th in the Eastern Conference and 2.5 games behind the first place Boston Celtics (13-4). The Pacers smashed the the Orlando Magic, 123-102, on Monday night.

The Timberwolves boast a four game winning streak of their own, with impressive wins over Cleveland (11-6) and a banged up Philly (9-8) team. The T-Wolves are currently in tenth place in the Western Conference, but they are only 2 games behind the Phoenix Suns (11-6).

The Pacers are 11-6 ATS this season, while the Timberwolves are 6-11 ATS this season. The point totals have gone over in the last 9 Pacers home games.

Minnesota on the Mend?

The Timberwolves cashed in this off-season with the major acquisition of Rudy Gobert. Many believed the team could capitalize on the scoring prowess of Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Townes and move up the pecking order in the Western Conference with a defensive nightmare in Rudy G.

Gobert does not add much offense to Minnesota, but he is grabbing 12.6 rebounds per game. Minnesota is playing much better than they were early in the season, but it's hard to know if this trend will continue.

Anthony Edwards leads the team with 22.1 ppg, shooting 45.6 % from the field. Karl Anthony-Townes is not too far behind, averaging 21.5 ppg and shooting 51.6% from the field.

Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.7 points per 100 possessions. They have a reputation for a poor defensive team, but this is a good sign for the Timberwolves. Gobert's defensive presence should help with their efficiency and rebounding against a high-flying, offensive Pacers team.

The T-Wolves also have the fourth highest consistency rating. This means they are one of the most predictable teams. I like to handicap consistent teams, because they are reliable in terms of court performance. The Brooklyn Nets have the 29th rated consistency rating, which was on full display in their embarrassing loss to a Sixers team without all three of its stars last night. 

Pace Yourself

The Indiana Pacers have been one of the surprises of the NBA so far this season. They are riding incredible production from Tyrese Haliburton (20.4 ppg) and Benedict Mathurin (19.3 ppg). Myles Turner has also been a nice piece, averaging 17.5 ppg and 8.6 rpg. Let us not forget that Buddy Hield is shooting 91.7% from the charity stripe. They can score.

Love offense? This is your team. The Pacers are averaging 116.8 ppg (5th) and 44.4 rpg (12th). They move the ball well in order to find high percentage shots to make up for their poor shooting percentage (46.2%). Indy can really spread the love and currently rank second in the NBA in assists per game at 22.5.

The team ranks 16th in defensive efficiency, giving up 112.6 points per 100 possessions. They often struggle on switches and teams who can move the ball well against them will eventually find an open man. However, the defense isn't a disaster and whatever they struggle with on defense they can make up for it on offense.

They rank third in consistency ratings in the NBA. They are a smidge more predictable than the Timberwolves, but both of these teams are not going to come out and surprise you. This is a game with a predictable outcome.

The Pick

The Pacers have the second best fast break offense in the league right now. They average 17.6 ppg in the fast break. This is going to problem for Minnesota, who ranks 21st in fast break defense, giving up 14.6 ppg on the break. Miami put up 22 points off of the fast break against the Timberwolves in their last game. Look for the Pacers to use that weakness to their advantage.

Look for both teams to start fast and score points. No lead will be safe here and the defensive struggles of the Pacers is one of the reasons you might be able to catch 1 or 2 points depending on whatever book you use.

The Timberwolves will need to slow this Pacers offense down. The Pacers get into trouble when they can't move the ball to find high percentage shots for Haliburton and Mathurin. Minnesota should utilize Gobert most of the game to keep those guards out of the paint. If the Pacers settle for threes and Anthony Edwards can have a solid day, the Timberwolves can cover.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, I think the fast-paced offense and the scoring potential of the Pacers young core will be too much for the T-Wolves on the road. While both teams are coming off some win streaks, Minnesota looked bad before they ripped off four in a row.

Grab the points with the Pacers here and consider the over too. It's a little high, but could hit if either team gets hot.

Jack’s Pick

Indiana Pacers +1.5

 

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