MLB Best Bets for Saturday – 3/30/2024

MLB BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY – 3/30/2024 – I had a pretty good day yesterday, after the Braves vs. Phillies disaster. The Phillies’ bullpen continues to disappoint year after year. It’s difficult to handicap a team like Philadelphia because you just never know what’s going to happen in the seventh inning.

Today’s slate offers a bunch of games with some great value. I’m going to get a little cute with some of my plays, which I can’t track in the Daily Picks feature on the website. Nonetheless, it should be a fun Saturday.

Be sure to also check out Johnny’s Quick Picks, where John Fredericks picks a buffet of games every day.

Head over to the Godzilla Wins Daily Picks page to check out all of our writers’ daily winners.

Read below for MLB Best Bets for Saturday – 3/29/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

Odds: Brewers -1.5; O/U 7.5 Runs

The weather in the Brewers vs. Mets game yesterday at Citi Field proved too much for both offenses and the under cashed easily.

I said on Friday that Citi Field proves difficult for right handers and the Brewers lineup is full of righties. The only left-hander in the lineup, Christian Yelich, hit a homer and, while the top of the order produced, Milwaukee scratched together only three runs. The good thing for the Brewers? The Mets only managed one run.

Severino gets the start today for New York after an abysmal 2023, where he posted on ERA north of six. Outside of last year, Severino has had a terrific career and I am betting on a return to form in 2024. He still has the fastball velocity that can shut down a potent offense. If Severino can get the Mets through six innings, I think they can hold Milwaukee to under 3.5 runs.

Here’s to hoping for a strong start for Severino and an anemic offense for the Brewers.

Jack’s Pick: Brewers UNDER 3.5 Total Runs (-110)

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Odds: Braves -1.5; O/U 8 Total Runs

While the gamble on Severino makes me nervous, I’m much more confident in the two starters for second game in the Braves vs. Phillies series at Citizens Bank Park.

Aaron Nola takes the mound against Max Fried in what is sure to be a pitchers duel. However, once the Braves get to the Phillies bullpen, all bets are off. Or, at least mine are.

Nola posted a 4.46 ERA last year, but he looked terrific in the playoffs and should have another good year. He’s a strikeout artist who ranks in the 96th percentile in chase percentage. He doesn’t walk many batters either. The Braves show good plate discipline, but can be susceptible to the strikeout. Many of the batters near the top of the order have a relatively high whiff rate.

There’s no reason Fried shouldn’t have an incredible year once again. He posted a 2.55 ERA last year and ranks in the 80th to 90th percentile in almost every category that matters. Last year, Fried faced the Phillies twice. He went 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, allowing one run and striking out six. The Phillies lineup hasn’t changed much since last year.

Don’t wait for this one to end.

Jack’s Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 Runs (+135)

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Odds: Detroit -1.5; O/U 8.5 Runs

The White Sox are the only team not to have scored since opening day, after being shut out by the Tigers on Thursday. In fact, the White Sox never advanced a runner past first base. If Chicago can get someone to second base today, maybe they’ll score a run by Tuesday. Most analysts feel this is going to be a bad year for the White Sox. After Thursday, I can’t disagree.

Kenta Maeda will get the start for the Tigers. He looked pretty effective at times last year and posted a career high in strikeouts (117). He doesn’t have much velocity on his fastball, but he can paint the corners when he’s on and could give this White Sox lineup trouble.

The White Sox will start Michael Soroka today, who recorded a 6.40 ERA in only six games for the Braves last year. Soroka is an interesting case, because he looked relatively effective for the Braves in 2019. He went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 2019 before some injuries sidelined him for the next two seasons. He’s looking for a bounce back year, but it could be more of the same.

The Tigers are motivated and energized right now. I think they can cover the run line.

Jack’s Picks: Tigers -1.5 Runs

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New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Odds: Houston -1.5; O/U 9 Runs

Houston’s bullpen has been horrible these first two games of the year. Yesterday, Christian Javier pitched a gem through five innings before the bullpen gave the game away. Astros reliever Paul Mushinski recorded one out and gave up four runs (two earned) for a spicy ERA of 54.00.

For their part, New York is without both Gerritt Cole and DJ Lemahieu and still seem like one of the strongest teams in the American League. Unfortunately, they play in a loaded division with Baltimore eyeing their first pennant since the eighties.

The Astros/Yankees rivalry has been lopsided in Houston’s favor for many years. I think the Yankees have a long memory here and are ready to start the season off with a sweep of the most dominant team in the American League of the last decade.

As for the pitching matchup, neither Marcus Stroman (NYY) or Hunter Brown (HOU) have been particularly effective in the past, which is why the run total is set so high. I see this game as relatively equal in terms of pitching, so I’ll take the hot offense against the cold bullpen.

Jack’s Pick: New York +1.5 Runs