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MLB Best Bets for Friday – 3/29/2024

MLB Best Bets for Friday – 3/29/2024

MLB BEST BETS FOR FRIDAY – 3/29/2024 – We have more games than initially scheduled on the card for today due to some rainouts and postponements during MLB’s opening day. I’ll outline my MLB best bets for Friday – 3/29/2024 below and try to check in with some best bets for baseball whenever I can this season. I went 1-1 yesterday ATS and will pick most of the games either against the spread or total runs.

Related: Gonzaga vs. Purdue Pick and Prediction

Be sure to also check out Johnny’s Quick Picks, where John Fredericks picks a buffet of games every day.

Head over to the Godzilla Wins Daily Picks page to check out all of our writers’ daily winners.

Read below for MLB Best Bets for Friday – 3/29/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

Odds: Brewers -1.5; O/U 7.5 Runs

Opening Day at Citi Field was postponed yesterday due to the weather, so the New York Mets will get their home opener this Friday at 2:40 EST. The weather is going to play a major factor in this one today. Wind will be blowing 20-30 mph on an overcast day after a bunch of rain yesterday.

Citi Field is not an easy park for right handers to hit in and, outside of Christian Yelich, most of the lineup the Brewers will field today will be full of righties. We never know what is going to come out of the Mets lineup, but the wind should make this a difficult game for either team to score runs.

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The pitching should be difficult for either side to handle, even on a sunny day. Freddy Peralta is a strikeout menace, with a K percentage in the 92nd percentile for the 2023 season. He doesn’t throw as hard as some other strikeout kings, but he gets a lot of teams to whiff. Outside of Brandon Nimmo and Francis Lindor, the Mets don’t have terrific plate discipline. I expect Peralta to rack up the K’s.

I worry a little more about Jose Quintana, who can be vulnerable if his off-speed study isn’t working and he can’t get hitters to roll over. However, Milwaukee’s righty-heavy lineup and the wind should keep this game below 7.5 total runs.

Jack’s Pick: UNDER 7.5 total runs

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Odds: Braves -1.5; O/U 7 Total Runs

We can keep talking weather in the northeast for this opening day matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. It’s not going to be nearly as bad as the weather in Queens, but both teams will still have to deal with 12mph winds ripping through Citizens Bank Park. I’ll definitely play to the under seven total runs. Let’s look at the spread.

Both the Phillies and the Braves rely on a potent offense full of absolute dudes who can hit the ball hard and put it in play. The only issue are the two pitchers on the mound. Not every game is created equally and Spencer Strider vs. Zack Wheeler should be a terrific pitcher’s duel.

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Strider is one of the best strikeout artists in the game. He averages in the 99th percentile for strikeout rate and he’s going against a lot of aggressive hitters in with low plate discipline. What’s more, he’s 2-2 all time at Citizen’s Bank Park with an ERA of 1.38. He doesn’t fall prey to the visiting pitcher jitters in Philly. He should dominate.

Zack Wheeler doesn’t strikeout out as many batters as Strider, but he can be effective with soft contact and rollovers. With the wind gusts at 12mph, I think Wheeler can go toe-to-toe with Strider on the mound.

The Braves bolstered their bullpen this year and we all know how Philadelphia has struggled with its pen in the past. This game screams Atlanta, but I’m afraid of the Philly voodoo magic against the Braves. I’ll take the 1.5 runs and hope for a close game.

Jack’s Picks: Phillies +1.5 and UNDER 7 total runs 

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds: Arizona -1.5; O/U 9 Total Runs

The Rockies looked terrible yesterday after giving up 16 runs to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix for the home opener.

After Freeland and Molina, Colorado did manage to get a handle on the runs, but by that time, it didn’t matter. The D-Backs felt they needed to upgrade their firepower in the lineup this offseason after their small ball flameout in the World Series. They hit a homer yesterday, so that’s good.

It’s going to be a long year for the Rockies. Cal Quantrill will get the start today. He doesn’t do anything particularly well. According to Baseball Savant, he’s in the 1% of strikeout rate, which is horrible news when facing the Diamondbacks who love to get the barrel on the baseball. If he doesn’t get soft contact, it will be a long day for him. Check out the graphic courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Metrics courtesy of Baseball Savant

I don’t know if Quantrill will flame out early, but the Rockies bullpen already needs some much needed help from the starters. Colorado couldn’t contain Arizona yesterday and I expect more of the same today.

Jack’s Pick: Arizona -1.5

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