Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns Expert Pick – April 5, 2024

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. PHOENIX SUNS EXPERT PICK – APRIL 5, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Minnesota Timberwolves (53.53 SU, 39-36-1 ATS) taking on the Phoenix Suns (45-31 SU, 32-42-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Friday, April 5, 2024

Time: 10:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center

Location: Phoenix, AZ

TV: NBA TV, AZ Family, and BSN

 

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves (53-23 SU, 39-36-1 ATS)	+4	+4	O217	+142
Phoenix Suns (45-31 SU, 32-42-2 ATS)	U219.5	-4	U217	-170

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Timberwolves Hang On To The Top Spot Out West?

 Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.1 PPG – 18^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.9 points per 100 possessions – 15^TH
• Scoring Defense: 106.0 PPG – 1^ST                   
• Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST

The Timberwolves currently own the top spot out west. Additionally, they have won eight of their last 10 games.

This includes a pair of wins against the Houston Rockets (113-106) and Toronto Raptors (133-85). In the team’s win over Toronto, four starters scored in double figures. Anthony Edwards led the way with 28 points, six assists and two steals.

Naz Reid added 23 points and seven rebounds on 6-for-10 shooting from beyond the arc. Rudy Gobert contributed 11 points and 15 rebounds.

Minnesota held a slim four-point lead after the first 12 minutes, but it was all business after that. In the ensuing three quarters, the Timberwolves outscored the Raptors 110-66, including a 42-25 edge in the final frame.

“Taking care of business, taking advantage of a severely depleted team, and just kind of kept growing the lead,” Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said after the game. “That was the challenge at halftime was to play against our own standard. Guys I thought for the most part did a great job of that all game long.”

Minnesota’s top-ranked defense held Toronto to 36.7 percent shooting from the field and 23.3 percent from 3-point range en route to its largest victory total of the season.

Can The Suns Avoid The Play-In Tournament?

 Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.9 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.9 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 113.9 PPG – 16^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.5 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH

The Suns are tied with the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 6 spot in the conference playoff race. They have also produced seven wins across their last 10 decisions.

In their recent outing, the Suns defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 122-101 on Wednesday night. Devin Booker paced the Suns’ offense with 40 points on 13-for-25 shooting and 5-for-9 from deep. He also handed out eight assists.

Kevin Durant added 32 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Royce O’Neale contributed 17 points and six rebounds to help the Suns win their second straight game.

This marked just the second time that Booker and Durant scored more than 30 points in the same game.

“It’s fun. Teammates feed off of it, everybody in the arena feeds off of it — shot-making is fun,” Durant said, via CBS Sports. “So we were able to get to our spots and knock ’em down.”

With six games remaining, every game is a must-win for Phoenix as the five through nine spots are separated by just 2.5 games in the standings.

Now that we have set the table for this pivotal Western Conference matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Suns opened as a consensus four-point favorite (per Pre-Game.com). That line has held steady for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Timberwolves are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
• In its last seven matchups against Phoenix, Minnesota is 0-7 against the spread.
• The Timberwolves are 9-2 ATS in their last road contests.
• Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five road matchups against the Suns.
• The Suns are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests.
• In its last five Friday games, Phoenix is 1-4 against the spread.
• Minnesota is 21-17 against the spread in 38 road contests while Phoenix is 17-20-1 against the spread at home this season.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (+4)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 219.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 217 points. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 13 times in the Suns’ last 20 outings.
• The UNDER total is 9-1 in Phoenix’s last 10 home games.
• In the Suns’ last 10 matchups against Western Conference teams, the UNDER total prevailed nine times.

Prediction: UNDER 217 points

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Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Anthony Edwards. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points.

Here’s a quick glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 11 career games against the Suns, he is averaging 22 points per contest.
• On the season, Edwards is averaging 26.1 points across 73 outings.
• In 37 home contests, he is averaging 25 PPG.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 46 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.9 points per outing.
• In 14 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, he is averaging 26.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 23.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Edwards UNDER 27.5 points

Fresh off his 40-point effort against the Cavaliers, the key player to watch for the home team is Devin Booker. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Will Booker’s numbers favorably compare to the projected points total? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• In 23 career games against the Timberwolves, he is averaging 24.4 points per contest.
• On the season, Booker is averaging 27.6 points across 62 appearances.
• In 29 home contests, he is averaging 26 PPG.
• Booker has played against Western Conference teams 37 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 28.6 points per outing.
• In nine matchups against Northwest Division opponents, he is averaging 23.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Booker has averaged 28.3 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Devin Booker OVER 26.5 points

James Tillman’s Timberwolves vs. Suns Picks

Spread: Timberwolves (+4) Over/Under: UNDER 217 points Player Prop Bet #1: Anthony Edwards UNDER 27.5 points Player Prop Bet #2: Devin Booker OVER 26.5 points