Mavericks vs. Kings Expert Pick and Prediction

Mavericks vs. Kings Expert Pick and Prediction - February 11, 2023

MAVERICKS VS. KINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION - FEBRUARY 11, 2023 - Greetings basketball fans and welcome back to our weekly column as we preview another one of the marquee games from Saturday night’s slate.

The Dallas Mavericks (31-26) are taking on the Sacramento Kings (31-24) in a showdown between two of the top teams in the western conference. While Dallas has been a playoff contender over the past few seasons, Sacramento has not been to the postseason since the 2005-06 campaign. So, the fact that the Kings currently have the third-best record in the conference is surprising.

Although Luka Doncic has been on the shelf nursing an injury, the Mavericks acquired former Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving prior to this month’s trade deadline to add another scorer to the rotation. And when Doncic does return, Dallas will have two of the most talented players in the league at their respective positions.

The Mavericks defeated the Kings 122-114 on Friday night and these two teams will hook up again for the second time in as many nights. Will Dallas come out on top again or will Sacramento even the score? Let's look at how these two teams stack up against each other.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings Season Trends

Mavericks Sizzling As of Late

The Mavericks are not one of the elite scoring teams in the NBA, as they are ranked 22nd at 112.5 points per contest. This squad is also ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency.

However, Dallas does have the eighth-best scoring defense in the league, giving up 111.8 points per contest. And the Mavericks have the seventh-best offensive rating. Their win over the Kings on Friday night was their third consecutive win and their fifth victory in six outings.

Kings Looking to Turn Things Around

Sacramento is in the bottom third of the association in both scoring defense and efficiency.

On the flip side of the narrative, the Kings are the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 119.5 points per game. And they are ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency, scoring 118.1 points per 100 possessions.

Simply put, this team has no issues scoring points. Unlike the Mavericks, the Kings have been a mixed bag of late, as they have dropped three of their previous five games. Needless to say, a win against the team that trails them by just one game in the standings is sorely needed.

The Picks

Over/Under

The predicted points total for this matchup is 232.5. Ironically, the two teams are averaging a combined 232 points per contest. That slim margin is one reason to go with the OVER. But in case you are not convinced, here are a few more trends that support this sentiment.

The total has gone Over for Dallas 11 times in the last 13 games they have played on back-to-back nights. And the total has gone Over four times in the Mavericks’ last five Saturday games.

The total has gone Over for Sacramento four times in the last five times they have played on consecutive nights. Additionally, the Over is 16-7-1 in Sacramento’s last 24 home games and 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games against opponents with a losing road record. Dallas is 12-17.

Player Prop Bet

At the time of this writing, there was no player prop data available on the Draft Kings site. With Doncic sidelined, one of the players to watch from this matchup would be Kyrie Irving. In the 17 games he is played against Sacramento, Irving has compiled averages of 22.5 points and 5.9 assists per contest. This includes a 25-point, 10-assist effort against the Kings on Friday night.

If Irving’s predicted scoring total is 27 points or more, go with the UNDER here.

Spread

Despite dropping the first game of this two-game home stand against Dallas, the Kings are a two-point favorite. In addition to the Mavericks winning on Friday night, here are a few other reasons to bet on the Mavericks covering the +2 spread.

Sacramento holds a 1–4 record ATS in their last five games played on a Saturday. And the team is just 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with an overall winning record.

Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and 5-0 against teams with a winning record.

The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and they hold a 4-1 record ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record. The Kings are 16-12.

Mavericks vs. Kings Expert Pick and Prediction – February 11, 2023