LSU vs. Florida State: Expert Pick and Prediction – September 3, 2023

LSU VS. FLORIDA STATE: EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 3, 2023 — Mother Nature appears to have spared the Orlando area, which should mean some good football on Sunday. If it’s anything like last year’s meeting between LSU and Florida State, it’ll be a tight battle from start to finish.

For LSU, this is a chance to even the score. Last year, Florida State made this game its arrival when it blocked an extra point to preserve a 24-23 win in New Orleans. But the Bayou Bengals could have won if they’d gotten the ground game going earlier, as they dominated when they let Jayden Daniels take off.

However, the Seminoles counter that last year never should have come as close as it did. Florida State led 24-10 in the final quarter and only allowed LSU a final chance when it fumbled on the one-yard line with 70 seconds remaining. With Jordan Travis back as well as top threat Johnny Wilson, the Seminoles should be able to attack LSU all game long.

Someone’s making a big step toward the playoff in this game. Whoever executes its game plan will be the one.

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The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
LSU (0-0 SU, 0-0-0 ATS)	-2.5	-2.5	O57	-142
Florida State (0-0 SU, 0-0-0 ATS)	U56.5	+2.5	U57	+125

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 3rd at 7:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 87% on LSU

Public Money: 92% on LSU

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of August 28th, 2023.

LSU vs. Florida State In-Season Trends

Lately, betting on the favorite in Florida State’s September games has been a fantastic way to lose money. Since Jimbo Fisher fled Tallahassee for College Station, the favorite has gone 3-12 ATS in Florida State’s first three games of the season.

Most times, that favorite has been Florida State, but the Seminoles covered as the dog at Virginia in 2019 and at home against Notre Dame in 2021 and won outright last year against LSU.

Interestingly, two of those covers have come against current LSU coach Brian Kelly, as he was on the sidelines for Notre Dame in 2021. Florida State has also won five straight overall against LSU, but last year was the teams’ only meeting since 1991, so that means almost nothing.

LSU also hasn’t been a great starter. Since the national championship season in 2019, the Tigers have been favored in their opener three times and lost all of them outright. The Bayou Bengals haven’t exactly shone on defense in those games, giving up an average of 35.33 points in their past three season openers.

Weather

If the field stays covered and the winds blow through quickly, this game won’t be affected much by adverse weather. Right now, it appears to be warm conditions with stronger winds than normal, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Rain is in the forecast for Thursday and Saturday, but the field should be fine on Sunday.

The Difference-Makers

Lost in the fact that LSU averaged 4.6 yards per game last season against Florida State was the fact that almost all those yards belonged to Jayden Daniels. Anyone else the Tigers tried did essentially nothing, and most of those players are back in garnet and gold. If Daniels is able to run wild again, LSU has the edge. If Florida State can keep him in the pocket, the Bayou Bengals don’t have a plan B.

With two new starters in the secondary, LSU might have a hard time keeping Johnny Wilson under wraps. Jordan Travis was able to throw consistently on the Tigers last year, and a repeat would give Florida State the upper hand.

The Pick

It seems like SEC bias here as to why LSU is favored. Florida State won the game last year in New Orleans and it really wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Other than one big win over Alabama in overtime last year, LSU never really established itself as being a top-level team. In losses to Tennessee, Texas A&M and Georgia, the Tigers were clearly second-best.

I think that holds again here. Florida State has veteran play too and already showed it can handle LSU head-to-head. I think the Seminoles might win this outright, but I’m not passing up free points here.

Dan’s Picks

Florida State +2.5 Under 57