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LSU vs. Alabama: Expert Pick and Prediction – November 4, 2023

LSU vs. Alabama Expert Pick and Prediction – November 4, 2023

LSU VS. ALABAMA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 4, 2023 — At least one of two things are true: This might be Nick Saban’s best coaching job, and this might be his luckiest Alabama team. The Crimson Tide had no business whatsoever winning against Texas A&M or Arkansas, but they managed to stay unbeaten the SEC.

They’re now one win away from essentially locking up the SEC West, as a win here would give them a two-game lead on the rest of the division. Alabama’s offense hasn’t been anything to write home about, but the defense keeps doing just enough to keep the Tide perfect.

Related: Dan’s College Football Picks Week 10

But that might not work against LSU, as the Tigers’ offense has proven almost unstoppable this year. LSU leads the nation in yards and points per game, as Jayden Daniels looks like a Heisman candidate if the voters can look past two losses for the Bayou Bengals. The best way to do that is if the Tigers can beat Alabama for the second year in a row, as a win keeps LSU just barely alive in the race for the SEC title.

The Odds

Matchup Open Spread Points Moneyline

(6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)

O60 +3 O61.5 +125

(7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) 

-3.5 -3 U61.5 -150


When: Saturday, November 4th at 7:45 p.m. EDT

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.


Public Bets: 74% on Alabama

Public Money: 65% on Alabama

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 3rd, 2023.

LSU vs. Alabama In-Season Trends

In the Saban era, the magic number is 24. If LSU gets there, the Tigers are 4-0. If not, the Tide is 12-1. The Bayou Bengals haven’t been held under the magic number all year, and the only time they got held under 30 came in the season opener against Florida State.

Related: Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan Pick and Prediction

This might be the game where Alabama has to score to stay with its opponent, something the Tide haven’t yet proven they can do. Only three times in eight games have the Tide managed to get above 26 points, and one was against Middle Tennessee in the season opener. Against Power 5 opponents, Alabama’s only managed to get there against Mississippi State and Tennessee.


With sunshine in the forecast and wind not likely to be much of a factor, this should be an ideal day for football. Temperatures are projected to sit at 73 degrees, with little wind to speak of on game day.

The Difference-Makers

Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s specialty is the deep ball, which could be critical against LSU. (Photo by Robert Sutton/University of Alabama)

Daniels has to have his best game to will the Bayou Bengals to victory. That means getting rid of the ball quickly in the face of Alabama’s pass rush, which ranks third in the SEC with 29 sacks. The Tide’s defense ranks second in the league in points per game allowed, making this a case of strength on strength.

Related: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Pick and Prediction

Jermaine Burton should have a big day in this matchup, as LSU’s biggest weakness is its secondary. With depth a serious concern for the Tigers on defense, Jalen Milroe will likely get several shots to go deep. Whether the LSU defenders can keep Milroe from finding holes will go a long way toward deciding this one.

The Pick

With LSU’s secondary depleted, it’s hard to see the Tigers keeping Alabama from putting up a good amount of points. But the Tigers are just as adept at tossing the football as they are at allowing touchdowns, and I can’t see Alabama slowing them down either.

As history has shown us, when there’s a lot of points scored in the game, that favors LSU. With that being the case, that’s where I’m going to lean with this pick.

Dan’s Picks  

 LSU +3   

 Over 61.5 

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