Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Expert Pick And Predictions – April 20, 2024

LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS.  DENVER NUGGETS PICK AND PREDICTIONS – APRIL 20, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Los Angeles Lakers (49-35 SU, 40-44 ATS) taking on the Denver Nuggets (57-25 SU, 38-42-2 ATS).

In a rematch of last year’s Western Conference finals,  here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

TV: ABC

 

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Los Angeles Lakers (48-35 SU, 48-34-1 ATS)	+2.5	+7	O223.5	+225
Denver Nuggets (50-32 SU, 44-37-1 ATS)	U206.5	-7	U223.5	-278

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can LeBron, AD, and Co. Steal The Series Opener?

 Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.0 PPG – 6^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 15^TH
• Scoring Defense: 115.3 PPG – 23RD                         
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.3 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH

The Lakers finished with the seventh-best record in the conference. But despite being in the play-in round for the second straight season, they enter this matchup with seven wins across their last 10 outings. This includes a 110-106 win over the New Orleans Pelicans in the opening round of the play-in tournament.

All five of the Lakers’ starting five scored in double figures. LeBron James led the way with 23 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.

D’Angelo Russell added 21 points on 5-for-11 shooting from distance. Anthony Davis made his presence felt at both ends of the floor as he finished with 20 points, 15 boards, and three blocked shots.

To be objective, though, if Zion Williamson — who scored 40 points and grabbed 11 rebounds — had not sustained an injury in the waning minutes of that contest, the outcome is probably different.

Dating back to last year’s conference finals, the Lakers are 0-7 against the Nuggets. With that in mind, it is somewhat difficult to foresee them winning this series against the defending champions.

Can The Nuggets Continue Their Mastery Over The Lakers?

 Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 114.9 PPG – 14^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.5 points per 100 possessions – 5^TH          
• Scoring Defense: 109.6 PPG – 6^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.0 points per 100 possessions – 8^TH

Meanwhile, the Nuggets just missed nabbing the top spot out west. They had the same 57-25 record as the Oklahoma City Thunder but OKC owned the tiebreaker, pushing Denver back to the No. 2 spot. The defending champions concluded the season with seven wins in their last 10 outings, including a 126-111 win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the season finale.

Jamal Murray paced the team’s offense with 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists.

 

Nikola Jokic continues to show why he is one of the most talented big men in the modern era. He finished with 15 points, 15 rebounds, five assists and four steals.  Aaron Gordon added 15 points, five boards, and five dimes.

The Nuggets’ 57 wins tied a franchise record, which was a byproduct of the team not being satisfied with what they accomplished last year.

“To tie the franchise record for wins in a season is outstanding, especially on the heels of winning a championship,” Malone said, via ESPN. “That’s been the mantra all year long. Not being satisfied.”

This will mark the third time these teams have clashed in the postseason over the last five years. Los Angeles won 4-1 in the conference finals round in 2020, while the Nuggets swept the Lakers in the same round in last year’s playoffs. It will be interesting to see which team advances this time around.

Now that we have set the table for Game 1 of this series, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

Denver opened as a seven-point favorite. The line has recently moved to 7.5 points for the home team (per OddShark). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five matchups against Denver.
• In the last 11 times the team has played on a Saturday,  Los Angeles is 8-3 against the spread.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings.
• Denver is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games against Western Conference opponents.
• In their last six games as the favorite, the Nuggets are 4-2 against the spread.

The Lakers are 3-1 against the spread this season as an underdog of 7.5 or more points. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 18-18-1 against the spread when they are favored to win by 7.5 points or more. However,  each of the Nuggets’  three wins over the Lakers were by at least eight points.

With that in mind, look for the Nuggets to cover in this scenario.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-7)

---

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 223 points (per Pre-Game.com). At the time of this writing, the line has moved up to 223.5 points (via DraftKings). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Lakers’ last five contests.
• The OVER total 6-1 in Los Angeles’s last seven matchups against Western Conference teams.
• In the Lakers’ last seven matchups against Northwest Division opponents, the OVER total prevailed five times.
• The total has gone OVER for the Nuggets four times in their last five outings.
• In Denver’s last 12 April games, the OVER total cashed in eight times.
• Los Angeles and Denver average a combined 232.9 points per game,  which is 9.4 more than the projected 223.5 total.
• Opponents of both these teams are averaging 227 points per game, which is 3.5 points higher than the points total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 223.5 points

---

Player Prop Bet

Nuggets’ big man Nikola Jokic is the key player to watch in this matchup. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 27 career games against the Lakers, he is averaging 20.2 points per contest.
• During the season, Jokic averaged 26.4 PPG across 79 outings.
• In 41 home contests, the two-time MVP averages 26.2 points per game.
• Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 49 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.7 points per outing.
• In 17 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, the Nuggets’ big man is averaging 27.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 28.3 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic OVER 27.5 points

James Tillman’s Lakers vs. Nuggets

Spread: Nuggets (-7) Over/Under: OVER 223.5 points Player Prop Bet: Nikola Jokic OVER 27.5 points