Lakers vs. Warriors Expert Pick and Prediction - February 11, 2023
LAKERS VS. WARRIORS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION - FEBRUARY 11, 2023 - One of our marquee games from Saturday’s NBA slate features the Los Angeles Lakers (25-31) taking on the defending champion Golden State Warriors (28-27). LeBron James became the NBA’s all-time leading scorer earlier this week.
Unfortunately, the team has not had much success overall as they are the proud owners of the third-worst record in the Western Conference.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have played like champions at home (21-6), but have posted 21 losses in 28 road contests. Can the Lakers snap their current three-game skid? Will the Warriors continue their dominant play at home against their division rivals? Let us look at this matchup between a pair of teams that have been somewhat of a disappointment this season.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Lakers(25-31) |
+4 |
+2.5 |
o238.5 |
+115 |
Warriors(28-27) |
u239 |
-2.5 |
u238.5 |
-140 |
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Tipoff
When: Monday, February 11th at 8:30 pm EST
Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: ABC
Public Bets: Lakers, 61%
Public Money: Lakers, 94%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 11th, 2023
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors Season Trends
Division Rivals are Capable of Getting Buckets but Struggle on Defense
The Lakers come into this matchup with the sixth-best scoring average in the NBA, averaging 117.1 points per contest.
From a defensive standpoint, the team’s play leaves a lot to be desired. L.A. is ranked 21st in defensive rating, and the ball club has the third-worst scoring defense in the league, giving up 118.6 points per contest.
On the other side of this showdown, the Warriors are also an impressive team from an offensive standpoint. Their 118.5 points per outing is the second-highest scoring average in the association. But like the Lakers, the Dubs do not make the grade at the other end of the court. They are ranked 18th in defensive rating (114.5 points per 100 possessions) and 26th in scoring defense, giving up 118.3 points per contest.
That said, in a contest featuring two defensively challenged teams, points will not be hard to come by in this one.
Lakers Look to Snap 3-Game Skid, While Warriors Hope To Continue Dominant Play On Their Home Court
The Lakers are a below .500 team at home (13-14), and their 12-17 road record is not overly impressive by any means, either. James sat out the team’s 115-106 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night, but is expected to return to the lineup against the Warriors.
The Warriors have played very well at home this season. In addition to their 21-6 record at Chase Center, the Warriors have also won their last three home games by an average margin of 15 points.
But with Stephen Curry nursing an injury, it will be interesting to see if Golden State has enough firepower to knock off the Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Head-To-Head & Betting Trends
Golden State has gotten the better of its Pacific Division rival in head-to-head competition.
Last season, they won three of the four meetings, albeit by an average margin of 8.3 points. Additionally, the Dubs took the first meeting between these two ball clubs on opening night, coming away with the 123-109 victory.
The Picks
Over/Under
The predicted over/under for this contest is 236.5. Although the two teams are averaging a combined total of 235.6 points between them, here are a few reasons why you should go with the OVER in the matchup. The total has gone OVER for the Warriors six times in their last seven outings.
The total has gone OVER for the Warriors in each of their last five games against the Lakers. In addition to that, the predicted points total has gone OVER for the Lakers 12 times in the team’s last 18 road games.
Player Prop Bet
At the time of this writing, there was no player prop bet data available on DraftKings. But hypothetically, if LeBron James’ predicted scoring total is 27.5 points or less, go with the OVER.
Not only is James averaging 27.7 points per contest against Golden State during his 20-year career, but he is also averaging 30.2 points per contest this season.
Spread
The Warriors hold a 3-1-1 record ATS in their last five games when playing against an opponent with an overall losing record. The Lakers are 25-31 on the season.
Los Angeles is 8-19-1 ATS when facing an opponent that has an overall winning record. The Warriors are one game above the .500 mark at 28-27.
The Lakers hold a 4-11 record ATS in their last 15 road games against an opponent with a winning record at home. The Lakers are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road contests in which they have played against a team that has won more than 60 percent of its games at home.
Despite Curry’s absence, the Warriors have scored 141 points and 125 points, respectively, in their last two contests. Based on these trends, I would suggest going with the Warriors to cover the 3.5-point spread.
James' Picks |
OVER 236.5 total pointsPPB: LeBron James OVER 27.5 pointsWarriors -2.5 |
DISCLAIMER: Godzilla Wins is for entertainment purposes only. Must be 21 or older, and reside in states where sports wagering is legal only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the Problem Gambling Helpline at 888-532-3500.
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