Lakers vs. Grizzlies Game One Analysis and Prediction
LAKERS VS. GRIZZLIES GAME ONE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION - Greeting basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly column where we break down some of the marquee matchups from the weekend’s slate of NBA games.
With day one of the playoffs now in the rearview mirror, our game from the second day of the opening weekend features the Los Angeles Lakers (No. 7 seed) taking on the Memphis Grizzlies (No. 2 seed). Without further delay, we will break down this matchup to determine which team has the edge.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Season Trends
It was just a few weeks ago that the Lakers’ season was going in the wrong direction. They were the No. 12 seed at one time and LeBron James was shelved for several weeks thanks to a foot injury. Rather than hitting the panic button, the team responded during his absence, posting wins in eight of the 13 games that James missed. And thanks to their improved play at the defensive end of the court, the Lakers closed out the season with eight wins in their final 10 games.
For all the good the Lakers have done over the past several weeks, it wasn’t enough to keep them from avoiding the play-in tournament. Fortunately, they were able to defeat the Minnesota Timberwolves to clinch the No. 7 seed.
Meanwhile, although Memphis finished with seven wins in its final 10 games, they have dropped three of their last five contests. This includes losses against the Chicago Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans, and the Oklahoma City Thunder. All these teams failed to qualify for the playoffs the next year.
The Grizzlies are a decent team across the board. They were ranked ninth in scoring (116.9 points per contest) and 15th in efficiency. At the other end of the floor, Memphis is ranked 11th in scoring (allowing 113.0 points per contest), and this squad had the second-best defense in the association, giving up 112.2 per 100 possessions.
In a matchup featuring a pair of teams that have been performing exceptionally well from a defensive standpoint, this could be a very low-scoring series.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Head-To-Head and Betting Trends
These two teams have played three times against each other.
On Jan. 20, The Lakers managed to escape with a 122-121 win, despite trailing by five points with a minute left in regulation.
On Feb. 28, the Grizzlies emerged victorious by a 129-121 margin. And the most recent tilt between these two ball clubs, which took place on Mar. 7, the Lakers came out on top 112-103.
Anthony Davis paced the Lakers with 30 points, 22 rebounds, three assists, and two blocked shots. If this version of AD shows up in the postseason, the Lakers are going to be a difficult team to beat.
The projected O/U total for this contest opened at 230 points. That line has moved a bit to 227.5, with the Under attracting 76% of the cash and 52% of the tickets.
The two teams average a combined 234.1 points per contest. And the projected point total has been eclipsed in just one of the previous three games between these teams.
The UNDER is 4-1-1 for Los Angeles in its last six first-round playoff games and 4-1-1 against teams with a winning record. The Kings are 48-34.
The UNDER is 5-2 for the Lakers in the previous seven games in which they played on three or more days of rest.
In the Grizzlies’ last 18 games, the UNDER holds a 13-5 mark. And the Under is 5-2 in Memphis’s last seven games following a straight-up loss of at least 10 points. The Grizzlies suffered a 115-100 loss to the Thunder on April 9.
In the last 18 meetings between these teams, the projected total has gone Under 14 times. Additionally, the UNDER has a 9-1-2 mark in the last 12 games these teams played in Memphis.
Prediction: Under 227.5
The Grizzlies opened as a consensus two-point favorite (-2). That line has moved to (-3.5). And this line may move again if Anthony Davis isn’t able to play. He’s dealing with a right-stress foot injury.
Los Angeles is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games against teams with a winning record. The Kings finished the season with a 48-34 record.
The Lakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
Memphis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference quarterfinal contests.
The Grizzlies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in which they have given up 100 or more points. OKC scored 115 points against Memphis in its season finale.
Memphis is just 7-19-1 ATS in the last 27 instances in which they have played on three or more days of rest. Their last game took place on April 9.
Prediction: Lakers (+3.5)
Play Prop Bet
My player to watch in Game 1, as well as the entire series, is Anthony Davis. He currently has -110 odds to score over 25.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 25.5 points.
During his career, Davis has suited up against the Grizzlies 35 times. During that stretch, he is averaging 22.7 points per outing, which is nearly three points less than the projected total for this contest.
However, Davis has eclipsed the projected total in four of his last six outings against Memphis. Davis is averaging 26.3 points per outing in his last 10 outings overall. And on the road, he is averaging 28.5 points per game. Lastly, in two games he’s played against Memphis this season, he is averaging 29 points per contest.
Prediction: Anthony Davis will exceed the 25.5 points total.
UNDER 227.5 total points
PPB: Anthony Davis OVER 25.5 points