Kings vs. Warriors Game Four Analysis and Prediction
KINGS VS. WARRIORS GAME FOUR ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION - Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins.
Our marquee matchup for this weekend features the Golden State Warriors taking on the Sacramento Kings. So, with further ado, let’s look at where things stand through the first three games and see who has the edge in Game 4.
How We Got Here
Despite finishing with the third-best record in the western conference, few thought the Kings would be able to keep pace with the Warriors in this playoff series. After all, the team had not been to the playoffs in 16 years. That, and the fact that the Warriors are an experienced, battle-tested playoff team looking to defend their crown, it didn’t look good for Sacramento coming into this first-round matchup.
The series opener came right down to the wire. Although the Kings led by two points in the game’s final moments, the Warriors still had a chance to send the game into overtime. However, Stephen Curry missed a three-pointer at the buzzer, allowing the Kings to come away with a 126-123 win.
De’Aaron Fox – who is making his playoff debut – scored 38 points, including 29 points in the second half. He also tallied five assists and three steals, while connecting on four of his eight attempts from distance.
How impressive was Fox’s performance? Well, although he was one of three starters that scored in double figures, Fox outscored the remaining starting five 38-33. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 points off the bench, including a 14-for-14 effort from the charity stripe.
The series opener is regarded as a feel-out game for both teams. But for those of us who thought that Sacramento’s win in Game 1 was an anomaly, we were shown otherwise. As was the case in the series opener, the game was tight. Fox (24 points, nine assists, five rebounds, and four steals) hit a three-pointer with the Kings leading 104-101 to push the lead to 107-101 at the 2:17 mark. Davion Mitchell hit another crucial 3-point shot for the Kings, extending the home team’s lead to 112-103 en route to a 114-106 victory and a 2-0 lead in the series.
With their backs against the proverbial wall, the Warriors refused to go away quietly. And in Game 3, they showed their championship mettle. Despite the absence of Draymond Green – who was suspended for stepping on Domantas Sabonis in Game 2 – the Warriors emerged victorious with a 114-97 lead, cutting the deficit to 2-1.
As expected, Curry led all scorers with 36 points, including six 3-pointers. He also tallied six rebounds, two assists, and three steals.
While Curry’s performance was just what the doctor ordered, he did have some help. Kevon Looney hauled in 20 rebounds (11 on the offensive glass) to go along with nine dimes. Anthony Wiggins, who just recently returned to the team’s rotation, contributed 20 points seven rebounds, and three assists. Jordan Poole also turned in a solid, all-around performance, scoring 16 points to go along with five rebounds, four assists, and three steals.
Here are my predictions for Game 4.
The projected O/U total opened at 239. The line has moved a bit to 237.5, with the Under attracting 57% of the cash and 64% of the tickets (subject to change)
The Kings have an O/U record of 41-42-2. Meanwhile, the Warriors’ O/U record is 45-36-4. Here is a glance as to why you should go with the Under in this matchup.
The Under has a 5-2 record in the last seven instances where Golden State played on two days of rest.
In the Warriors’ last 13 home games, the Under is 9-3-1. Furthermore, the Under is 17-5-1 in the Warriors’ last 23 games against an opponent with a winning record. Sacramento finished the season with a 48-34 record.
The Under holds a 7-3 record for the Kings in their last 10 games against teams with an overall winning record. Golden State finished the regular season with a 43-39 record.
The Under is 20-7-1 for the Kings in their last 28 games against teams with a winning home record. The Dubs were 33-8 at the Chase Center this season.
Prediction: Under 237.5 total points
The Warriors opened as a consensus seven-point favorite (-7). That line has moved to (-7.5).
The Kings are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in which they lost by more than 10 points. The Warriors beat them by a 17-point margin in Game 3 (114-97).
Sacramento boasts a 9-3 record ATS in their last 12 games following an outright loss. This squad is also 8-3 ATS in its previous 11 games against teams with a winning home record. Golden State was 33-8 at home during the regular season.
The Warriors are 2-5 ATS following an against-the-spread win, and they are 2-5 in their last seven games of a straight-up win by more than 10 points. Golden State beat Sacramento by a 17-point margin.
Sacramento is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these two teams, and they boast an 11-3 record ATS in the last 14 games at Golden State.
Prediction Sacramento (+7.5)
Player Prop Bet
My key player to watch in this game is Stephen Curry. In 45 games against the Kings (including playoffs),
He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -110 of scoring less than the projected points total.
Curry has suited up 45 times against the Kings, and he is averaging 24.1 points per contest.
However, it is important to keep in mind how Curry has played against the Kings in this series.
In two of the three games thus far, Curry has eclipsed the 30.5-point threshold. With their backs still against the wall, I am expecting another huge outing for Chef Curry.
Prediction: Stephen Curry will exceed 29.5 total points
UNDER 237.5 total points
The Warriors will win outright. Kings will cover (+7.5) spread
PPB: Stephen Curry OVER 29.5 points