Kings vs. Suns Expert Pick - March 11, 2023
KINGS VS. SUNS EXPERT PICK - MARCH 11, 2023 - Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly column where we break down some of the marquee matchups from this weekend’s slate of NBA games. With about 15 games left in the regular season, every game is a must-win for the teams jockeying for position in the conference playoff races.
The Kings Are On The Verge Of Ending Playoff Drought
Today, we will look at the Sacramento Kings (39-26) taking on the Phoenix Suns (37-29). Let’s be honest, no one thought the Kings would be tied for the second-best record in the Western Conference.
Not only that, but they are just three wins away from clinching a winning season for the first time since 2005-06 and this team is well on its way to ending its 16-year playoff drought.
Suns Have Moved Up In The Standings, Durant Proving To Be A Valuable Addition Thus Far
Meanwhile, the Suns have moved up to the No. 4 spot in the conference playoff race. And with the midseason acquisition of Kevin Durant, the Suns officially entered the conversation of teams that have a “legitimate” shot at winning it all.
While Durant has been spectacular in three games since joining the Suns (26.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on 69% shooting), he recently sustained an ankle injury during pregame warmups and is expected to be out for at least three weeks.
So, without further delay, let’s dive into this matchup between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Kings(39-26 SU) |
+3 |
+3 |
O240 |
+125 |
Suns(37-29 SU) |
u232.5 |
-3 |
U240 |
-150 |
Tipoff
When: Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 10:00 pm ET
Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
TV: BSAZ and NBCS-CA
Public Bets: Suns, 62%
Public Money: Kings, 64%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 11th, 2023
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Season Trends
The Kings come into this matchup on the heels of a 122-117 win over the New York Knicks on Thursday night.
Domantas Sabonis paced Sacramento with a triple-double that included 24 points, 13 boards, and 10 dimes. It was his ninth triple-double of the season and his league-leading 53rd double-double. De’Aaron Fox contributed 23 points (including 15 in the final frame) and Malik Monk provided some scoring punch off the bench with 19 points.
It was Sacramento’s second consecutive win and their eighth win in 10 outings. This team is rolling right now.
Phoenix comes into this pivotal matchup having defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 132-101 on Wednesday night. Although the home crowd was somewhat disappointed in Durant not being able to play, Devin Booker more than made up for Durant’s absence. He scored 44 points on 17-for-23 shooting from the field and he converted six of his 10 attempts from beyond the arc.
It is also worth mentioning that Booker played just 28 minutes. Now that is what I call an efficient day at the office.
The Suns have won four straight and have posted seven victories in their last 10 contests. With two teams playing at a high level, something will have to give when these two teams clash on Saturday night.
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Head-To-Head & Betting Trends
Last season, these two teams split the four regular-season meetings, with a margin of victory of no more than seven points for either side.
This season, the Suns have already taken the first two games of the season series, beating Sacramento 122-117 back in November and 120-109 on Feb. 14. With the No. 2 spot up for grabs, the Kings will be looking to get a much-needed win against their Pacific division rival.
The Picks
Over/Under
The projected O/U points total opened at 237. That line has moved a bit to 238.5. The two teams are averaging a combined 234.4 points per contest and have only exceeded this total twice in the past six head-to-head encounters.
Here are a few reasons to consider going with the OVER in this one. The OVER is 5-2 for the Suns in their last seven games overall and 5-2 when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous outing. Sacramento scored 122 points in their last outing against the Knicks.
The OVER is 14-6 in Phoenix’s last 20 games when facing an opponent with a winning road record. The Kings are 18-13. Lastly, the OVER has an impressive 27-12 record for the Suns in their last 39 contests after scoring more than 125 points in their previous outing. Phoenix put up 132 points in their recent win against the Thunder.
Spread
The projected spread has the Suns at -3.5 and the Kings at +3.5
Sacramento holds a 6-2 record against the spread in their last eight games overall and a 6-2 mark when facing an opponent who allowed 100 points in the previous matchup. The Suns gave up 101 points to Oklahoma City. Additionally, the Kings have a 6-2 record ATS following an outing in which they scored 100 or more points. The Kings scored 122 against New York.
It is also worth noting that the Kings have a 25-11-1 record ATS in their last 37 games in which they had one day of rest. I’m picking the Suns to win the game, but look for the Kings to cover the +3.5-point spread.
Player Prop Bet
My player to watch in this contest is Devin Booker. He currently has -105 odds to score more than 31.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 31.5 points.
In 23 games against the Kings, Booker is averaging 25.8 points per contest. However, he has scored 31 or more points four times in his last five outings against Sacramento. Booker is also averaging 38 points per contest in his last four games on 60.2 percent shooting from the floor and 53.3 percent from long range. Simply put, I’m going with the OVER in this scenario.
James's Picks |
Over 238.5 total pointsKings (+3.5)PPB: Devin Booker OVER 31.5 points |