John Fredericks: MLB Best Bets for Sunday May 21st
JOHN FREDERICKS: MLB BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY MAY 21st – Saturday was our proverbial baseball clunk job as I went a dismal 1-5 and lost -$565 on the day. There are 162 games per team plus post-season. You’ve got to stay with the grind. Don’t be a crybaby, play the turns.
2023 MLB Godzilla Season Stats
*Based on all wagers at $100 per game at money or run line odds as specified in Draft Kings. Note: If money line is -$150, we are laying $150 to win $100, etc. If we take +$130 and we win, we win $130 for our $100.
May 21, 2023
After two tough days this week (Tuesday and Saturday) we are still up 92-67 and plus +$285 on the season. When you can ride out a tough spell and still post a profit things are going well.
Stay with the flow. Let’s get winners today! Sunday is a new day! Remember one thing: no revenge betting!
A’s at Astros (-1.5 Runs, -180)
Framber Valdez is going to shut out Oakland, which means Houston has to score two runs against the worst pitching staff in the majors. No-brainer. Don’t over-think it.
Pick: Houston (-1.5 Runs, -180)
Royals at White Sox (-190)
The Chi-Sox may be on a modest run against the second worst team in baseball – Kansas City.
We made a lot of jack betting against Lance Lynn the first two months of the season, but he may have turned it around. His last start was stellar against Cleveland, going seven while giving up one earned run and striking out seven. But we played that hunch on Musgrove last night in San Diego and got waxed. I think Lynn is lights out today.
Hernandez is an opener for the Royals – and they have no bullpen to speak of.
Pick: White Sox (-190)
Brewers at Rays (-140)
The Brew-Crew can’t beat a lefty if he came out of single-A ball. They are batting a miserable .216 against southpaw starters, while averaging 2.7 runs a game.
Milwaukee pitching has allowed 6.0 runs a game over the last seven games. The Brewers bull-pen is a disaster on the road, yielding a 5.28 ERA.
How is this team in first place? Because the rest of the NL Central sucks.
The Rays are relentless, averaging 5.9 runs at game at home and giving up 2.6. Opponents have nit .192 for the season in St. Pete. Wow. This club is for real.
Tampa Bay has one of the best bullpens in MLB at home this season with an ERA of 2.57. Beeks has been unhittable.
Today is the day we have to acknowledge how really good this Tampa Bay team is.
Pick: Rays (-140)
Twins at Angels (OVER 8.0 Runs, EVEN)
Ohtani this and Ohtani that. He’s given up 17 runs in his last four starts.
The Twins starter today is no better: he’s served up seven gopher balls in his last four starts. Having said that, normally my over-run selections end-up 1-0.
If you believe in basic math, this is a good bet. The Twins have gone over the run total in six of seven while the Angels have been over in five of six. The arithmetic doesn’t lie.