Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury Expert Picks — August 20, 2023 

INDIANA FEVER AT PHOENIX MERCURY EXPERT PICKS – AUGUST 20, 2023 – Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend coverage of the WNBA here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier looks at the Wings vs. Mystics and the Sun vs. Sky, our third game of the day features a matchup of the two worst teams in the league – The Indiana Fever (8-24) and the Phoenix Mercury (9-22).  

To put their records into perspective, it should be noted that the top three teams in the league have more wins than Indiana and Phoenix combined. And as the home stretch nears, it is obvious that neither team is vying for a playoff berth this season. That said, there is nothing but pride on this line in this one. 

So, without further delay, here’s a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.  

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, August 20, 2023 

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ 

TV: AZFamily 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. 

The Odds

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INDIANA FEVER VS PHOENIX MERCURY — SEASON TRENDS 

Indiana has dropped five of its past six games. This includes an 83-79 loss against the Washington Mystics on Friday. Rookie of the Year favorite, Aliyah Boston, scored a team-high 16 points and collected 10 rebounds. Kelsey Mitchell also chipped in with 15 points, seven assists, and two steals.  

Indiana is a respectable seventh and fifth in scoring and efficiency. Unfortunately, the story is not as glamorous at the other end of the floor. They are giving up a league-worst 85.2 points per contest and they also have the worst defensive rating in the association as well (allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions). Looking at those stats, it should come as no surprise as to why this team has the worst record in the association, even if it is by just 1.5 games. 

Meanwhile, the Mercury have dropped three of their past five games. And they come into this matchup on a two-game skid. In their most recent outing, the team was trounced by the New York Liberty to the tune of 85-63. After trailing by five points going into the break, the Sun were outscored 32-16 in the third quarter, which essentially put the game out of reach.  

Phoenix shot 35.2 percent from the field and an abysmal 4-for-23 (17.4 percent) from beyond the arc. Diana Taurasi scored 14 points to go along with six rebounds and four assists, but she needed 17 attempts to get those 14 points. The Mercury also got a 14-point, seven-rebound effort from Sophie Cunningham.  

THE PICKS 

The Spread 

Indiana is favored to win this game by 2.5 points. Although this is not out of the realm of possibility, here is why I am going in the opposite direction. 

• The Fever are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road contests.  
• Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. 

• Indiana is just 5-16 ATS in the last 21 games they’ve played on Sunday. 
• The Fever are 1-7 ATS in the last eight times these teams have played in Phoenix. 
• Indiana is a woeful 7-19 ATS in the last 26 times these teams have faced off against each other.  

Prediction: Phoenix (+2.5) 

Over/Under 

The projected scoring total for this contest is 160.5 points. Nah. I’m not feeling that total and here’s why. 

• These teams have played three times this year and they eclipsed the projected total for this game only once.  
• The UNDER total has prevailed seven times in Indiana’s last 10 games overall.  
• In Phoenix’s last 26 games against Eastern Conference opponents, the UNDER total has hit 19 times.  
• The UNDER is 5-2 for the Fever in their last seven games against Western Conference teams. 

• The UNDER is 12-3-1 for Phoenix in its last 16 games played on a Sunday.  

Prediction: UNDER 160.5 points 

Player Prop Bet 

My key player to watch from this contest is Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell. She currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 17.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 17.5 points. 

First, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Mitchell is averaging 16 points in three games against Phoenix this season. However, she has put up 20 or more points in five of her last seven outings. Additionally, Mitchell is averaging over 20 points per contest (20.2) over her last six appearances overall.  

That said, I am going with the over in this one.  

Prediction: Kelsey Mitchell OVER 17.5 points 

James’s Picks 

• Spread: Phoenix (+2.5) 

• O/U: UNDER 160.5 points 

• PPB: Kelsey Mitchell OVER 17.5 points