Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics Expert Picks – August 20, 2023

DALLAS WINGS VS. WASHINGTON MYSTICS EXPERT PICKS – AUGUST 20, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

Yesterday was NOT a good one for yours truly. I predicted that the Los Angeles Sparks would fall to the defending champion Las Vegas Aces.

Unfortunately, the Sparks came out on top 78-72. Not only did they snap a 13-game losing streak against Las Vegas, but they also snapped the team’s 21-game home win streak as well. 

Now that I’ve had some time to digest what took place, I will shift my focus to the games on tap for today.

One of our matchups features the Dallas Wings (17-14) taking on the Washington Mystics (15-16). While the Wings (No. 4) are three spots ahead of the Mystics (No. 7), the two teams are separated by just two games in the standings. Needless to say, every game down the stretch will be crucial for both teams. 

So, without further delay, here is a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why. 

Tipoff

When: Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Where: St. Elizabeth East Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, D.C.

TV: NBA TV, NBCS-DC, Monumental and BSSWX

Click here for more from James Tillman III

The Odds

Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics Season Trends

Wings Are Confident With Wins Over The Top Three Teams This Season

The Dallas Wings have been a .500 club over their last 10 outings. But the one feather under their cap is that they have defeated the Aces, the New York Liberty, and the Connecticut Sun this season. And while their record is borderline pedestrian, they come into this matchup with a pair of wins over the Sun.

They beat the third-best team in the league 91-81 on August 12, and 95-75 on Friday. Given the fact they have defeated the top three teams in the association this season, this ball club must be feeling very confident right about now.

The Wings are the third-best team in scoring (86.6 PPG) and efficiency, while placing 10th and 8th respectively, in points allowed and defensive rating. Despite their shortcomings at the defensive end of the floor, it is worth noting what they accomplished in their recent win over the Sun.

They outscored their opponent 29-12 in the final frame. Dallas also limited Connecticut to just 38 percent shooting from the field and 3-for-14 from beyond the arc. Let’s see if they can duplicate that effort against Washington.

Mystics Seek To Extend Winning Streak To Three Games Against High-Scoring Wings 

Meanwhile, the Mystics are 4-6 over their last 10 games. But like Dallas, they also come into this matchup riding a two-game winning streak. They defeated the Chicago Sky 83-76 on Aug. 13 and followed that up with an 83-79 win over the Indiana Fever on Friday.

Brittney Sykes paced Washington with 30 points, five rebounds, and four assists. She shot 11-for-19 from the field and connected on five of her eight attempts from three-point range. It was her second 30-point outing in as many nights. 

The Mystics come into this matchup ranked sixth in scoring (80.9 PPG) and have the seventh-highest offensive rating. At the other end of the spectrum, they are the fifth-best team in both scoring defense (81.8 PPG) and efficiency (allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions).

The one common denominator is that both teams don’t defend the 3-point line very well, so it will be interesting to see if that will play a factor in the outcome. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Dallas Wings are favored to win this game by 5.5 points. Here is why you should go with Dallas to cover the spread.

• Dallas has covered the spread 10 times in the last 13 meetings between these teams. 
• The Wings are 5-1 ATS the last six times these teams have clashed in Washington. 
• Washington is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games in which their opponent had a winning record.
• The Mystics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Prediction: Dallas Wings (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this game is 166 points. Going with the UNDER is the smart play and here’s why.

• These teams have played three times this season. In all three contests, the UNDER total prevailed. 
• In those three contests, the combined total never exceeded the 166-point threshold. 
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams. 
• The UNDER has cashed in nine times in the previous 11 meetings between these ball clubs in Washington. 

Prediction: UNDER 166 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch is Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 21.5.

Ogunbowale is averaging a career-best 21.2 points per contest this season, which is just a smidge under the projected total for this contest. However, Dallas has limited her to under 20 points in each of those three meetings I previously mentioned. 

That said, I’m going with the UNDER here. 

Prediction: Arike Ogunbowale UNDER 21.5 points