Heat vs. Bucks Expert Pick and Prediction

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Season Trends

Defense in South Beach

Miami is not an offensive juggernaut by any means. For instance, they are ranked dead last in scoring, averaging 108.4 points per game. And the Heat have the fourth-worst offensive rating in the league.

On the flip side, Miami has the second-best scoring defense, allowing 108.1 points per game, and this squad has the fourth-best defense in the NBA.

In their most recent outing, Miami recorded its second loss on a four-game road trip, falling 106-104 to the New York Knicks on Thursday night. Bam Adebayo led the way with 32 points to go along with nine boards. That said, Miami is hoping to conclude its road trip on a positive note.

Fear the Deer's Defense

Like the Heat, Milwaukee is not overly impressive from an offensive standpoint. The team is ranked 18th in scoring and 23rd in efficiency. But it is a much different narrative at the defensive end of the court.

The Bucks are ranked fifth in scoring defense, allowing 111.8 points per contest. And they have the third-best defensive rating in the league, yielding 110.8 points per 100 possessions.

Hot Streak

While the Heat have been struggling, the Bucks are hot.

In fact, the Bucks have won six straight and have posted wins in eight of their last 10 contests. This includes a 106-105 win over the L.A. Clippers on Thursday night, a game in which they trailed by 21 points in the third quarter.

MVP candidate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, scored 54 points and pulled down 19 rebounds. It was his third 50-point performance of the season and his second 50-point outing in five days.

Simply put, Miami will need to limit Giannis’ production if it hopes to come away with a win in this one.

The Picks

Over/Under

The current O/U point total is 221.5, and the two teams are averaging a combined 222.5 points per contest.

The total has gone under in six of Miami’s last seven games. Additionally, the total for the Bucks has gone under in four of their last five games against teams in the Southeast division.

Considering this matchup includes a pair of top-five defensive teams, go with the UNDER in this one.

Player Prop Bet

Giannis Antetokounmpo currently has -125 odds for scoring under 33.5 points and -106 odds for going over that threshold.

It cannot be overstated how well he has been playing since he returned to the team’s rotation. Along with notching his third 50-point outing of the season against the Clippers, Antetokounmpo has scored at least 33 points in each of his last five outings.

Barring any health issues with the knee, look for Giannis to continue his solid play against Miami and exceed the predicted 33.5 points.

Spread

Miami is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games and 2-4 ATS in its last six games on the road. Conversely, this squad holds an impressive 4-1-1 record ATS in its last six games against Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, the Bucks are 1–6 ATS in their last seven games that were played in February. But Milwaukee holds a 5-2 record ATS in its last seven games that took place on a Saturday.

In a game in which points will come at a premium, the Bucks will win outright, but I expect the to cover at +5.5.

Heat vs. Bucks Expert Pick and Prediction – February 4, 2023