Guardians vs. Astros Expert Pick and Prediction – April 30, 2024 

GUARDIANS VS. ASTROS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 30, 2024 — If you’d said at the start of the season that one of these teams would be leading its division and the other would be under .500, that wouldn’t have surprised anyone.

The surprise is which team is which. Houston simply hasn’t played anywhere near its potential to this point, winning just nine games all season and having the past three come against Colorado and Washington. Cleveland has parlayed a favorable schedule into a hot start, and the weakness of the AL Central might have the Guardians in prime position to make the playoffs.

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But Cleveland still has a ways to go before it’s really considered a contender. The Guardians did take one win off Atlanta in their most recent series, but they ultimately didn’t yet prove they can beat the top teams consistently.

And that’s one reason that Houston, despite its poor record, comes in as the favorite for this matchup. The Astros might be struggling, but there’s still talent in this lineup. If Houston can start cashing in its opportunities, the Astros still have some hope.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians   (19-9 SU, 20-8 ATS)	O9	+1.5	O9	+145
Houston Astros (9-19 SU, 11-17 ATS)	-1.5	-1.5	U9	-170

First Pitch

When: Tuesday, April 30 at 8:10 p.m. EST 

Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Starting Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco, CLE (1-2, 4.63 ERA, 20 K’s) vs. Hunter Brown, HOU (0-4, 9.68 ERA, 17 K’s)

Public Bets: 84% on Houston

Public Money: 79% on Houston

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 30th, 2024

Guardians vs. Astros In-Season Trends 

If the Astros could get runs across the plate, they’d be in much better shape. Houston has hit the ball well to this point; the Astros just do a poor job of cashing in when they get runners on base.

And that’s why the Astros have played to the under in nine of their past 10 games, pushing the one exception. Houston is the ultimate dichotomy, hitting .264 as a team and ranking third in OPS, but ranking in the bottom half of the majors in scoring.

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The days of Cleveland being a poor hitting team appear to be over for now. The Guardians rank ninth in the league in runs and hit .250 as a team, a much more impressive number than where they’ve hit in recent years. With pitching still a strength, the Guardians being 10 games over .500 isn’t a surprise.

Players to Watch

There’s a real worry here for the Astros, and that’s Hunter Brown against a team that doesn’t strike out. The biggest issue Brown ran into this season came in Kansas City, when the Royals pounded him for nine runs in 2/3 of an inning.

One of the main reasons Kansas City was so effective was the Royals’ ability to put wood on ball. Kansas City ranks second in the majors in fewest strikeouts to Houston, and Cleveland’s third in that category. When Brown doesn’t miss bats, he’s not very effective, and it’s hard to miss bats against the Guardians.

Steven Kwan has hit safely in five straight games, collecting six hits in the process. As Cleveland’s leading hitter, he’s a prime candidate to get on base twice or more in this game.

The Pick 

With neither pitcher doing the job so far and the wind blowing out toward left field, expect some offense in this game. Houston feels like it’s finally out of its slump and can start producing some offense, but Brown really isn’t the right pitcher for this matchup with Cleveland.

Houston’s still got a ways back to get on track, and two wins in Mexico against Colorado haven’t changed that. Expect the under streak to end, but the value is with the Guardians here.

Dan’s Picks

Over 9   Guardians ML +145