Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Expert Pick – January 20, 2024
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 20, 2024 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. This week features some interesting matchups in the divisional round of the playoffs.
One of those games features the Green Bay Packers (10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS) traveling on the road to take on the San Francisco 49ers (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) — the top seed in the NFC.
Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.
Kickoff
When: Saturday, January 20, 2024
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
TV: FOX
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Green Bay Packers(10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS) |
+10 |
+9.5 |
O50.5 |
+330 |
San Francisco 49ers(12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) |
U50.5 |
-9.5 |
U50.5 |
-425 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends
Will Jordan Love Continue His Success Against The Heavily-Favored Niners?
Packers Offensive Stats |
Packers Defensive Stats |
Points Scored: 22.5 PPG – 12th |
Points Allowed: 20.6 – 10th |
Total Yards: 345.5 YPG – 11th |
Yards Allowed: 335.1 YPG – 17th |
Passing Yards: 233.4 – 12th |
Passing Yards Allowed: 206.8– 9th |
Rushing Yards: 112.1 – 15th |
Rushing Yards Allowed: 128.3– 28th |
The Packers come into this matchup riding the wave of a four-game winning streak. This includes a surprising 48-32 win over the Dallas Cowboys in the wildcard round. And please do not let the final score fool you. It is not indicative of how dominant the Packers were in what turned out to be a one-sided affair.
Jordan Love – in his first year as a full-time starter – continued to shine in his playoff debut. He completed 16 of 21 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns. Additionally, Love finished with a passer rating of 157.2. He guided the Packers to six touchdown drives on their first seven possessions.
“We came in here with a mindset of we’re going to dominate,” Love said, via ESPN. “A lot of people were counting us out, and we didn’t care about that.”
As if Love’s stats were not already impressive, the Packers ran the ball effectively as well. Aaron Jones pounded Dallas’s defense with 118 yards on 21 carries and three touchdowns. Romeo Dobbs inflicted some pain on the Cowboys’ defense as well, hauling in six passes for 151 yards and one touchdown.
Love mentioned that the team’s mindset was to come in and dominate, and they did exactly that. Over his last nine games, Love has thrown 21 touchdowns against just one interception. That is one of several reasons why he likes his team’s chances against the top-seeded Niners or any of the other remaining teams in the postseason tournament.
NINERS SEEKING A THIRD STRAIGHT TRIP TO THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Niners Offensive Stats Niners Defensive Stats
Scoring: 28.9 PPG – 3rd Points Allowed: 17.5 PPG – 3rd
Total Yards: 398.4 YPG – 2nd Yards Allowed: 303.9 YPG — 8th
Passing Yards: 257.9 YPG – 4th Passing Yards Allowed: 214.2 YPG — 14th
Rushing Yards: 140.5 YPG – 3rd Rushing Yards Allowed: 89.7 YPG – 3rd
Although the Niners dropped two of their final three regular-season games, they have produced seven wins in their last nine games. And in those seven wins, the average margin of victory was 18.5 points per contest.
In addition to coming off a bye week, it is worth mentioning that the Niners have been to the conference championship round in each of the past two seasons. Unfortunately, they came up a bit short both times.
In 2022, they suffered a 20-17 loss against the Los Angeles Rams, despite having a 17-7 lead in the fourth quarter.
Last season, with injuries to Brock Purdy and the backup quarterback, Josh Johnson, the Niners were no match for the Eagles, and they were defeated to the tune of 31-7.
“We’re excited,” All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams said, via CBS Sports. “This is what you wait all year for, especially after the way last year ended. The regular season is fun, and it has its own challenges. But when you get that close, like we did last year, you just want to fast forward to the regular season and get back to this tournament.”
Although the Niners come into this contest as huge favorites, they will have to play a near-perfect game to get back to the conference championship game for the third straight season. Given how well the Packers have played during the second half of the season, it will not be an easy task by any means.
Now that we have set the table for this NFC divisional round matchup, here is a look at the betting trends for both teams.
The Picks
The Spread
The Niners opened at a 10-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 9.5 points for the home teams. Here is a quick look at how each team has fared against the spread.
- The Packers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.
- Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in their last six matchups against the Niners.
- The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against NFC-West opponents.
- The 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
- San Francisco is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 January games.
Based on the above trends, it is difficult to predict which team will cover the spread. However, the Packers are 5-5 against the spread as the road team, while the Niners are 3-5 ATS at home. That, along with the fact that Green Bay has been playing well over the past several weeks, leads me to believe they will cover the large spread in this divisional-round matchup.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers (+9.5)
Over/Under
The projected over/under total opened at 50.5 points, and that line has not moved. Here is a look at why going with the “over” is the smart play here.
- The total has gone OVER seven times in the Packers’ last eight contests.
- In Green Bay’s last six road games, the OVER prevailed ALL six times.
- The OVER total has cashed in six times in the Packers’ last eight road matchups against San Francisco.
- In the Niners’ last seven games, the OVER total won five times.
- The total has gone OVER 10 times in the Niners’ last 14 games against Green Bay.
- In San Francisco’s last nine games against the NFC-North division, the OVER total prevailed six times.
Prediction: OVER 50.5 points
Player Prop Bets
The player to watch for the road team is Jordan Love. He currently has -115 odds of scoring passing for more than 248.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 248.5 passing yards.
Not sure which way to go? Here is a look at a few trends that should help.
- Love threw for 4,159 yards during the 17-game season and 272 yards in the wildcard round against Dallas. That comes out to an average of 246.2 yards per outing.
- The Packers have played 11 games on the road this season. In those contests, Love is averaging 228 yards per game.
- Love has faced NFC teams 13 times. He has averaged 245.5 YPG.
- Over his last eight outings, Love has thrown for an average of 262.5 yards per contest.
Love had a similar estimated yards total in the game against Dallas and he exceeded that total by 24 yards. With that in mind, going with the “over” for Love looks like a good bet here.
Prediction: Jordan Love OVER 248.5 passing yards
The key player to watch for the 49ers is Christian McCaffrey. He currently has -125 odds of rushing for more than 92.5 yards and -105 odds of finishing with less than 92.5 rushing yards. Here is a look at how his season numbers stack up against the projected points total.
- McCaffrey amassed 1,459 rushing yards in 16 starts. That comes out to an average of 91.2 YPG.
- In seven home games this season, McCaffrey is averaging 88.9 yards per outing.
- McCaffrey has faced NFC opponents 11 times this season. In those games, he is averaging 92 YPG.
- Using the same sample size that we used for Jordan Love, McCaffrey is averaging 100.9 yards across his last eight outings, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup six times during that stretch.
Most of McCaffrey’s seasonal splits were close to the yards total for this matchup. Given these trends, combined with the fact that the Packers ranked 28th against the run, going with the “over” for McCaffrey is the smart play here.
Prediction: Christian McCaffrey OVER 92.5 rushing yards
James’s Packers vs. Niners Picks |
Spread: Packers (+9.5)
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