Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Expert Pick – January 14, 2024
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 14, 2024 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. The bad news is the regular season has concluded. The good news is the postseason begins this weekend and there are a few interesting games in the wildcard round.
One of those games features the Green Bay Packers (9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS) traveling on the road to take on the Dallas Cowboys (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS).
The Packers Have Knocked Off The Cowboys In The Last Two Playoff Encounters Between These Storied Franchises
This head-to-head series has been one-sided in recent years. Green Bay has beaten Dallas four straight times and they have won nine of the last 10 meetings.
Two of those defeats took place in the conference divisional round of the playoffs. In January 2015, Aaron Rodgers – who was limited by a calf injury — helped the Packers overcome an eight-point deficit, throwing a pair of touchdowns in the second half.
What most people may remember about that game is the catch that was ruled an incomplete pass. On fourth-and-2, Cowboys receiver, Dez Bryant, made what looked to be a spectacular catch to put the Cowboys on the one-yard line. However, upon further review, the pass was ruled incomplete, the Packers took over possession, and the rest is history.
OTD in 2015, Dez Bryant's catch was ruled incomplete.
Did @DezBryant catch it? 👀
🎥: @NFL pic.twitter.com/PbmpEXt6bU
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) January 11, 2023
In the 2017 rematch, the waning moments of that contest played out a bit differently, but with a similar outcome. The Packers led by as many as 18 points in the first half. Despite the double-digit deficit, the Cowboys managed to tie the score at 31.
The game seemed destined to go to overtime. But then it happened. Facing a third-and-20 with just 12 seconds left, Rodgers completed a 36-yard pass to Jared Cook.
Aaron Rodgers to Jared Cook 🎯
Packers (+200 ML) take out the Cowboys in the 2017 playoffs thanks to this impossible throw-and-catch with 3 seconds left
(via @nfl)pic.twitter.com/oPghJySv6I
— br_betting (@br_betting) May 29, 2020
On the next sequence, Mason Crosby kicked the game-winning field goal from 51 yards away as the game clock expired, enabling the Packers to escape with a 34-31 victory.
“It’s kind of a blur right now,” Crosby said after the game. “When we have 35 seconds on the clock and that our offense can move the ball into field goal range and a manageable kick, that’s just special.”
Those two Packers’ wins took place with Rodgers still under center. That era has ended in Green Bay and Jordan Love will make his postseason debut.
Will the Packers’ dominance continue, or will the Cowboys continue their hot streak at home?
Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.
Kickoff
When: Sunday, January 14, 2024 at 4:30 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
TV: FOX
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Green Bay Packers(9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS) |
+7.5 |
+7 |
O50.5 |
+270 |
Dallas Cowboys
|
U49.5 |
-7 |
U50.5 |
-340 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends
Can Jordan Love Lead The Pack Past the Cowboys In His First Playoff Game?
Packers Offensive Stats |
Packers Defensive Stats |
Points Scored: 22.5 PPG – 12th |
Points Allowed: 20.6 – 10th |
Total Yards: 345.5 YPG – 11th |
Yards Allowed: 335.1 YPG – 17th |
Passing Yards: 233.4 – 12th |
Passing Yards Allowed: 206.8– 9th |
Rushing Yards: 112.1 – 15th |
Rushing Yards Allowed: 128.3– 28th |
The Packers come into this matchup riding the wave of a three-game winning streak. This includes a 17-9 win over the Chicago Bears in the season finale. In a must-win scenario for Green Bay, Jordan Love rose to the occasion. He was 27-of-32 for 316 yards and two touchdowns.
Not only did Love help the Packers beat Chicago for the 10th straight time, but he also managed to guide the green and gold to the postseason in his first year as a starter – something that even Rodgers did not accomplish in his first season.
“I think everyone knew what we were capable of,” Love said, via ESPN. “All the games we lost were close games that we knew there were little things we could fix that would put us over the hump to win those games. I think we were always right there in every game, so that was the thing that was easy for us to keep believing.”
Jordan Love Put On A Clinic During The Second Half Of The Season
Love has also thrown 18 touchdowns against just one interception in his last eight outings. Despite being the youngest team in the league, Love and the Packers like their chances against a Cowboys team that has played extremely well at home this season.
HOW ABOUT DEM COWBOYS AT HOME THIS SEASON?
Cowboys Offensive Stats Cowboys Defensive Stats
Scoring: 29.9 PPG – 1st Points Allowed: 18.5 PPG – 5th
Total Yards: 371.6 YPG – 5th Yards Allowed: 299.7 YPG — 5th
Passing Yards: 258.6 YPG – 3rd Passing Yards Allowed: 187.4 YPG — 5th
Rushing: 112.9 YPG – 14th Rushing Yards Allowed: 112.4 YPG – 16th
On the other side of this matchup, we have a Cowboys team that has posted three wins across their last five outings. This includes a 38-10 thumping of the Washington Commanders in the last game of the season.
Dak Prescott finished 31 for 36 for 279 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception. Tony Pollard spearheaded Dallas’s ground game with 70 yards on 17 carries with one touchdown. CeeDee Lamb caught 13 passes for 98 yards with two touchdowns.
Dallas finished 12-5 for the third straight season. But Prescott feels there is a difference in this year’s version of the Cowboys compared to last season.
“Look at last year — the way we came into this place and didn’t finish the season the way we wanted to — to where we are now,” said Prescott. “The growth. The coaching staff. The players. The accountability. The communication. The transparency. And both sides of the ball holding their own.”
The Cowboys posted a perfect 8-0 home record during the regular season. Furthermore, they have won 16 consecutive games on their home turf, which is the team’s longest home winning streak since winning 18 straight contests in the regular season at Texas Stadium from 1979-81.
The boys in blue are hoping this trend continues in the first playoff meeting between these two teams since that 34-31 loss in 2017, which was Prescott’s rookie season.
Now that we have gotten all the preliminary stuff out of the way, here is a look at the betting trends for both teams.
The Picks
The Spread
The Cowboys opened as a consensus 7.5-point favorite. That line has moved to seven points for the home team. Here is a quick look at how each team has fared against the spread.
- The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Dallas.
- Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against NFC-East opponents.
- The Cowboys are 2-4 ATS in their last six contests.
- Dallas is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 January games.
- The Cowboys are 4-2 ATS in their last six Sunday games.
Based on the above trends, it is difficult to predict which team will cover the spread. So, my tie-breaking factor is Dallas is 10-0 SU and 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games when playing as the favorite. Additionally, the Cowboys have won those games by an average of 20.6 points.
In those eight home wins during the regular season, Dallas outscored its opponents by 21.5 points per contest, and they posted a point differential of plus-172. With that in mind, going with the home team to cover looks like a good choice.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Over/Under
The projected over/under total opened at 49.5 points. The line has moved slightly to 50.5 points. Here is a look at why going with the “over” is the smart play here.
- The total has gone OVER six times in the Packers’ last seven games.
- In Green Bay’s last five road games, the OVER total is 5-0.
- The OVER total has cashed in four times in the Cowboys’ last five matchups against Green Bay.
- In Dallas’s last five home games against the Packers, the OVER total hit ALL five times.
- The OVER total has prevailed 11 times in the Cowboys’ last 15 games against NFC opponents.
Prediction: OVER 50.5 points
Player Prop Bets
The player to watch for the road team is Jordan Love. He currently has -115 odds of scoring passing for more than 248.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 248.5 passing yards.
Not sure which way to go? Here is a look at a few trends that should help.
- Love threw for 4,159 yards during the 17-game season. That comes out to an average of 244.6 yards per outing.
- While he averages 268.9 yards per game at home, that average drops a bit to 223.1 YPG on the road.
- In 12 games against NFC opponents, Love averaged 243.3 YPG.
Although Love has averaged 258.6 yards per game over his last five outings, going with the “under” looks like a good bet here.
Prediction: Jordan Love UNDER 248.5 passing yards
The key player to watch for the Cowboys is Dak Prescott. At the time of this writing, Prescott has -115 odds of throwing for more than 279.5 and -115 odds of finishing with less than 279.5 yards. Here is a look at how his season numbers stack up against the projected points total.
- During the season, Prescott averaged 265.6 yards per contest.
- In eight home games, he averaged 308.8 YPG. It should also be mentioned that he threw 22 touchdowns against three interceptions in those contests.
- Prescott played against NFC opponents 12 times this season. In those games, he averaged 278.4 YPG.
While Prescott has averaged 256.4 yards per contest across his last five outings, he has played at an elite level in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium. Simply put, going with the “over” for Prescott is the smart play here.
Prediction: Dak Prescott OVER 279.5 passing yards
James’s Packers vs. Cowboys Picks |
Spread: Cowboys (-7)
|
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