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Goodyear 400 NASCAR Outright Wagers

Goodyear 400 NASCAR Outright Wagers

GOODYEAR 400 NASCAR OUTRIGHT WAGERS – Welcome to another edition of me breaking down some NASCAR wagers. NASCAR is happening in South Carolina this week at Darlington Raceway. Darlington is sometimes called “The Track Too Tough To Tame” and at other times it’s been referred to as the “Lady in Black.”

In terms of specs, Darlington is 1.366 miles in length and steeply banked in the turns. In other words, an intermediate track with steep banking. The real issue for drivers is that when this track was originally built, the owner had to accommodate a minnow farm on the west side of the property. These accommodations mean that the track resembles an egg more than a traditional oval shape.

In practice, this egg shaped track presents a myriad of issues for the pit crews and drivers because the west end of the track features a pretty tight turn, while the east end of the track is a wide sweeping turn.

Being able to set cars up to make both of those turns quickly and effectively is always a challenge here. You’ll see a lots of scuffs on the walls and sides of cars from drivers trying to navigate this treacherous track. There’s even a term for this phenomenon: the Darlington Stripe.

Driver Drama

Ross Chastain did what he seemingly does best last week: piss off a bunch of people with his aggressive driving.

We’re officially off the Chastain Train this week after spending too much time hoping that he would get things squared away. He’s been terrible at this track in his career with only one top-10, and it’s becoming increasingly evident that everyone on the track hates him so he’ll be receiving no favors from anybody else.

Let’s get into some outright winners.

DraftKings

Favorite

Kyle Larson (+380)

I’m just going to eat the chalk here. I want a winner, and the greatness of Larson around here is simply too tough to ignore. His average finishing position at Darlington is 9.2. Now, that may not seem high, but it’s actually second among drivers with more two or more starts at this tracks.

Darlington is just tough. He’s had two close calls here in his career already, but I think this is his year to finally close the deal. I don’t love the odds, and they’ve cratered as the week has gone on. Nevertheless, I think he’s the most likely winner. If you can stomach the odds at such a weird track, go ahead and grab him.

Mid-Tier

Kyle Busch (+1400)

Now we’re having a little bit more fun if you want to bypass those favorite odds. Busch has finished in to the top-10 in over half of his career starts and he’s finished in the top-5 in a quarter of his starts. He knows how to get around this track.

What’s selling me even more is that he was really good here last fall when he led for 155 laps before his engine failed. I’m more willing to go off the performance in his last race here rather than his end result. If something fluky doesn’t happen this time around, I suspect he’ll be up towards the front again, and then we’ll pray he doesn’t have an engine blow on him.

Longshot

Bubba Wallace (+2000)

He was really fast in qualifying and just got edged out of pole position by one-tenth of a second. These feel a little long for a guy who seemed to have it figured out in qualifying.

Additionally, he’s go the Dr. Pepper paint scheme this week, and I will always bet on Dr. Pepper.

Let’s have ourselves a day.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, 5/14

Author

  • Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

    Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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