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AdventHealth 400 NASCAR Picks and Preview

AdventHealth 400 NASCAR Picks and Preview

ADVENTHEALTH 400 NASCAR PICKS AND PREVIEW – It’s starting to become annoying, but I’ve had the second place finisher in each of the last two weeks. It’s a troubling trend that is not yielding awesome results for my account balance. Nevertheless, NASCAR heads to Kansas this week and that’s where our betting action will be.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is probably the easiest comparison to make in terms of looking at previous races this season. Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval, so intermediate length tracks are a good starting point for any analysis when looking to see how these teams performed either earlier this season or last season.

Let’s just go ahead and get on with the picks and find an outright winner today.

*All odds courtesy of DraftKings, 5/7/23

Ross Chastain (+900)

Ross Chastain is complicated. On the one hand, he’s the NASCAR Cups Series points leader after finishing second last week (yep, that was the 2nd place finish I mentioned). He’s having a terrific season by most measures and he’s stacking up points like crazy.

On the other hand, he hasn’t won a race yet this season. And it seems like every week he does something that pisses everyone off. In the last couple of weeks, he’s had a major impact on the results by driving perhaps a little too aggressively and causing a wreck. Nobody is going to help him into the winners’ circle if he keeps wrecking people every week. It’s becoming a trend with him.

That being said, I’ll keep riding him. Trackhouse has been good on intermediates as team, so this feels like a spot he could break through. He has four top-5 finishes this season, and it seems like at some point he will get over the hump. The results were decent for him at Kansas last year where he finished 7th both times. Hopefully he can improve on those results.

I also don’t hate it if you want to be more conservative and take him at +250 or +110 for a top-3 or top-5 finish, respectively.

Joey Logano (+2200)

I can’t keep my eyes off of this bet at these juicy odds. The pedigree of Logano and past results are enough to justify me making this bet. Add in that the car has looked fast in practice and I’m sold.

He has three wins on this track through the course of his career, so we know he has the stuff to get it done around here. He also added a win in Atlanta to his resume earlier this season, which profiles as a similar intermediate track.

The results haven’t been stunning here in recent years, finishing 17th both times last season and notching some lower end top-10s in 2021.

I think the car and team should be improving as we move through the season, not regressing. I’m happy to gamble a little at this price.


  • Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

    Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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