Giants vs. Dodgers Expert Pick and Prediction – April 1, 2024 

GIANTS VS. DODGERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 1, 2024 — The most important part of the opening weekend is to not panic. It’s a long season, and the good teams will eventually figure it out.

San Francisco and Los Angeles exemplify that. The Dodgers looked OK but not great against the Cardinals in their first full series, getting touched up for 13 runs in the last three games of the season. The offense remains outstanding, but the pitching’s going to have to be better when we get to October if Los Angeles wants to make another deep push.

Related: MLB Opening Day Power Rankings

The Giants have also had some pitching problems to get this season started. San Francisco faced a tough opening series in San Diego, but Petco Park is usually a pitcher’s paradise. Not so for the Giants, who gave up 28 runs in a four-game series. If that’s going to be the norm this year, the Giants won’t be doing much in 2024.

In this game, it could look even worse, as neither Keaton Winn nor James Paxton is expected to be at their best. Winn did not get a full spring training and Paxton did not pitch well at the end of last season. Given what these offenses can do and what the wind has coming, this might be the night to go for offense.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
San Francisco Giants (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)	O8.5	+1.5	O8.5	+175
Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)	-1.5	-1.5	U8.5	-205

First Pitch

When: Saturday, April 1 at 10:10 p.m. EST 

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Starting Pitchers: Keaton Winn, SF (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K’s) vs. James Paxton, LAD (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K’s)

Public Bets: 70% on Los Angeles

Public Money: 80% on San Francisco

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 1st, 2024

Giants vs. Dodgers In-Season Trends 

The over has cashed in all four of the Giants’ games this year, as the Giants’ bullpen has proven a disaster to this point. Only Philadelphia has a worse bullpen ERA than the Giants’ 9.00 in the early going.

The Dodgers have played out a pair of close games in their most recent outings, but they’ve been very reliable on offense. So far, Los Angeles hasn’t failed to plate five runs in the young season.

Players to Watch

Mookie Betts is off to a brilliant start for the Dodgers, hitting .500 and driving in 10 runs already. When he gets on base, he’s got a 50% chance to score, as he’s been on 18 times and has come around to score on nine occasions.

The Giants’ numbers might be a bit suppressed by Petco Park, but they have been putting up runs. Dodger Stadium is again a pitcher-friendly park, which favors doubles hitters like Michael Conforto. The wind should be blowing out, which would give him an edge.

The Pick 

The pitchers don’t look up to the task here at all. Neither had a great spring, both have health questions and both are likely to be out of the game somewhat early.

That combines to a likely possibility of a game that sees a lot of pitchers and a lot of matchups where the batter has the edge at the plate. The Dodgers’ strong offense and the conditions only further lead me to believe the over is the play.

As for the game, stay away from the runline. The Dodgers just played two one-run games, so you don’t want to mess with the possibility of a one-run L.A. win. However, there’s no value on the moneyline, so unless you really need a win, I’d stick with the total.

Dan’s Picks

Over 8.5   Dodgers ML -205