Final Day Bundesliga Parlay – May 27, 2023
FINAL DAY BUNDESLIGA PARLAY – MAY 27, 2023 – It’s now Matchday 34 in the Bundesliga, as the German soccer season comes to a close. That means all nine matches played simultaneously, and that means the chance to try for a major parlay.
One of my favorite things to do at the end of the season is place a small wager on all nine matches as a parlay play. Because they all kick off at the same time, you’ll know in two hours whether you’ve turned $5 into several hundred dollars or more. It’s even better than a lottery ticket, because you’ve got a chance to use your knowledge of these teams to go for a big payday.
Here’s a look at all nine matches that will kick off at 9:30 a.m. Saturday morning and what I think is the best bet on the table for each one.
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Borussia Dortmund vs. FSV Mainz
Dortmund has the chance to claim the Bundesliga crown and end Bayern Munich’s reign on Saturday, and they’ve got the right opponent for the job. Mainz actually beat Bayern at home in April, but that’s the last thing that the 05ers have done right this season. Since that match, Mainz has lost four straight and been outscored 13-3, never giving up fewer than three goals.
Mainz has nothing to play for and Dortmund will want to make this a celebration in front of its fans. The Black and Yellow should score early and often to give its fans plenty to cheer about. Backing Dortmund -1.5 at -165 makes for a great start to this parlay, as it’s a conservative play but still plenty valuable.
FC Koln vs. Bayern Munich
Don’t read into this being a road match for Bayern. RheinEnergieStadion has been a home away from home for the Bavarians, as they’ve won eight consecutive matches at Koln’s ground. Defense has been lacking for the Billy Goats lately, as they’ve conceded a goal in seven consecutive matches.
Bayern must win to have any hope at another championship, as Dortmund leads by two points and clinches the title with anything less than a Bayern victory. In a situation like that, Bayern usually puts away a fair amount of goals. Bayern and OVER 2.5 Goals (-200) is the play here.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg
The last time Frankfurt lost a Bundesliga match at home was October against Dortmund, and that puts Freiburg in a difficult position. Both teams have to try for a win, as Freiburg must beat Union Berlin’s result to qualify for the Champions League and Frankfurt must win and hope last-place Hertha can topple Wolfsburg to reach the Conference League.
My guess is that this will be the proverbial draw that helps neither side. Frankfurt has won or drawn five of the past eight meetings, including a 1-1 draw in the first matchup this year, so I’ll back Frankfurt double chance (-225) and hope the Eagles come out ready at home.
Union Berlin vs. Werder Bremen
This should be fairly straightforward. Union has not lost on its home ground since February 2022, a streak that now encompasses 22 matches. There’s plenty at stake for the Iron Ones, who could earn their first-ever appearance in the Champions League with a win (as long as Freiburg doesn’t make up a four-goal difference).
Werder Bremen shouldn’t put up too much resistance. The River Islanders aren’t in good form, having lost four of their past six matches and given up at least two goals in 10 of their past 11 matches. They also don’t have anything to play for, as they’re four points clear of the relegation zone and safe for next season. Union to win and over 1.5 goals (-145) makes sense.
RB Leipzig vs. Schalke 04
Here’s your curveball. RB Leipzig is by far the superior side, sitting third in the Bundesliga. But the Red Bulls are locked into third place after beating Bayern last week, and thus have nothing to play for.
Schalke, on the other hand, is playing for their lives. The Miners must win to have any chance of survival, as they sit in 17th place and can’t win a tiebreaker on goal difference. They’re going to have to go all out, and that means there’s a chance for an upset. They’ve taken seven points in their past four matches, only losing to a motivated Bayern. Leipzig doesn’t have that motivation. Back Schalke double chance (+120).
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hertha Berlin
This could get ugly. Hertha has already been relegated and is playing on the road, so there won’t be any motivation to give the fans one final performance. Hertha has lost 13 of 16 on the road and has given up at least two goals in nine of its past 10 away matches.
That’s sweet music for Wolfsburg, as the Wolves need a win to give themselves a chance at European soccer. They already smashed Hertha 5-0 in the first meeting in Berlin, and they’ve won their past two home matches and scored at least twice in all of them. The score should be whatever the Wolves want it to be. Back Wolves and OVER 2.5 (-120)
VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG Hoffenheim
One side needs a win, while the other would be just fine with a one-goal defeat. Because of goal differential, Hoffenheim finishes ahead of Stuttgart as long as it doesn’t lose by more than one goal, but Stuttgart secures safety with a victory of any kind. As long as Bochum doesn’t beat Leverkusen by 24 goals, a one-goal Stuttgart win secures both teams for next season.
Hoffenheim’s been beaten by exactly one goal in five of its past seven road matches, so there’s lots of value in Stuttgart by exactly one goal at +270. But for the purpose of the parlay, a more conservative Stuttgart ML (-170) makes sense.
VfL Bochum vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Bochum really needed Leverkusen to win on Sunday against Monchengladbach. Had Leverkusen held on, it would have almost secured sixth place and wouldn’t have needed anything more than a draw from this match. Instead, Leverkusen now has to win to hold off Wolfsburg, which is terrible news for a Bochum side that could be relegated with a defeat.
Bochum’s defense is the worst in the Bundesliga, giving up 73 goals on the season. Leverkusen has scored 21 goals since March over its past 11 matches, which says that they’re likely to put a few in the net in a match they must win. Back Leverkusen Over 1.5 goals (-150).
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg
Augsburg are the cockroaches of the Bundesliga. Every year, they look like they’re finished, and every year, they manage to do just enough to survive. They’ve probably done enough again this year, as Schalke can’t make up the goal difference unless Augsburg lose by a ridiculous number.
That’s not likely to happen here. Even though Augsburg hasn’t won at Gladbach since 2015, Gladbach has nothing to play for. The Foals are likely to be just fine with a defensive match with very little action. Expect Augsburg to play a defensive match, which makes UNDER 2.5 (+145) very appealing.
Bundesliga Parlay (+14111)
Bayern and Over 2.5
Eintracht Frankfurt Double Chance
Schalke Double Chance
Bayer Leverkusen TTO 1.5
Union Berlin and Over 1.5
Wolfsburg and Over 2.5
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