Huge week of gambling ahead of us, as we leave another big week behind. We’ve been red hot with the NFL picks around here (aside from John who is still looking to reclaim his dominant form from last season), and we’re hoping some of our game insights translates to the ungodly amount of props we’ve made so far this season. Be sure and check on what will be amusing reading and probably horrible viewing as Jack and I run through my college thoughts.
TIMESHARES IN JACKSONVILLE
With the amount I have invested in Trevor Lawrence & Co. I’m thinking about finding a rental property down in the 904. Remember a few weeks ago when I declared all of those Jags bets dead-on-arrival? I was wrong. We are back. So, all of those awesome wagers from a really smart person are actually starting to look awesome and, potentially, smart. But definitely awesome. Right now we’re holding: Jags to win the Super Bowl 125/1, to win the AFC South at 8/1, and T-Law for MVP at 50/1. This team is starting to come together and Doug Pederson has turned them into something formidable. They looked great against the Chargers, who are admittedly a little bit banged up, and I don’t think it’s a fluke. This week will be a big test against the last remaining unbeaten team in the NFL, the Eagles. I can’t wait. Let’s gooooo!
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 28, 2022
I whiffed on winners last week for the loyal 12 people who read this and the .5 people who may actually bet them. That’s on me. I actually added Reddick later in the week, but alas, the article was posted, so it was of no use to anyone but myself. Anyways, here’s the hot stuff for this week, should you choose to lean into the sicko stuff and tune in for 500 miles of pure Talladega superspeedway racing. To try and keep this not insanely boring, superspeedway racing is pretty unique and the only real tracks where this type of racings exists is at Daytona and Talladega. Both of these tracks are enormous 2.5ish mile ovals, and are defined by pack racing and restrictions on the engines to limit speed. We’re looking for guys who might fit that bill at a good price. At William Hill, who have just an absolutely atrocious website that I was hesitant to even link (and no, they don’t post odds on there, because they’re the worst), Joey Logano (12/1), Kyle Busch (16/1), Keselowski (15/1), Erik Jones (28/1), and Stenhouse, Jr. (28/1) are all there for a price that is decent. There aren’t any home run longshots here as the market typically has a pretty clear idea of guys who perform well on these tracks. Tread carefully this week, but if you must (like I must), think hard about those guys. How do you not bet on this sick Sunny D car on Sunday?
— JTG Daugherty Racing (@JTGRacing) September 28, 2022
SAME GAME PROP PARLAY CORNER
The gambling internet was on fire last night because Pat McAfee – who has a wildly popular podcast due in large part to his exclusive access to Aaron Rodgers – encouraged listeners to hop on his odds-boosted same game parlay that ended disastrously for those who followed along.
— NFL (@NFL) September 23, 2022
So, not only did that blow the under bet, which insanely pissed me off. But more importantly, it pissed off the Pat McAffee legion. FanDuel has a $120 million deal with him over the next four years, so being good partners that they are they refunded everyone’s wager who lost on that silly bet.
Now, a word on that. As a general rule, parlays are stupid, and smart gamblers almost never bet them except to experience the thrill of turning small money into big money. Almost always, this turns small money into no money, however. The math is unavoidable on this. The only time I would really consider it, is if you think there is a strong correlation in the game result (for instance, taking an underdog and the under in a game that you think will be ugly). One other reason could be if you like Team A on the moneyline because you don’t like the spread, the problem is, Team A is -200 on the moneyline. So you throw in another big favorite like Team B who is -400. When you parlay them together, it comes out to around even money.
What FanDuel did was just good business and they lost almost nothing. They refunded the bets in the form of free play, which means it has no value until it is used in bets, then any winnings are converted to cash. Ultimately, they just delayed getting their money back. The type of people who are flipping out because they lost a longshot same-game parlay are exactly the type of customers they want to keep happy. These people suck at betting and will lose it back in less excruciating fashion. So, get as weird as you want with fun longshot props, it’s super fun. But don’t do the parlay thing, it’s just impossible to beat. Buy lottery tickets instead and save yourself some time.