Dan’s Week 9 College Football Predictions – October 28, 2023
DAN’S WEEK 9 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS – OCTOBER 28, 2023 – One of my main philosophies for betting is to get to know lower-level teams well and bet them accordingly. The sportsbook doesn’t have time to track every game, which means some lines are going to slide through. But if any lines slide through, it won’t be on the biggest games. It’s going to be on the lower-level teams who don’t draw a lot of eyes or action.
This year, that’s meant Hawai’i for me. Thanks to my wife’s work, I’m living in Hawai’i this year, so I’ve seen a lot of the Rainbow Warriors. And last week, I knew that their line against New Mexico was a mistake. Hawai’i doesn’t play with discipline and doesn’t play well on the road, which meant the Rainbow Warriors were easy pickings for the Lobos.
The line was Hawai’i by 1.5, but New Mexico won by 21 and was never really threatened. And that’s what comes when you know teams well. It’s a time commitment, but it’s worth the work.
Here are Dan’s Week 9 College Football predictions.
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West Virginia at UCF (-7, 59.5), Saturday
Central Florida shouldn’t be giving seven points to anyone in the Big 12 at this point. The Knights are catching more action because they almost tripped Oklahoma last week, but they’ve struggled badly in other league games.
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West Virginia has played hard in every game and still has its eyes on a bowl bid. The Mountaineers will need two more wins to make that happen, and this could be one of them. With their ground game facing a nice matchup with the Knights, I think West Virginia can definitely keep this close and might even win outright.
Pick: West Virginia +7
Indiana at Penn State (-32, 46), Saturday
Indiana’s played four Big Ten games and gotten creamed in every one of them except Ohio State. And this time, the Hoosiers walk into an angry Beaver Stadium after Penn State got shut down by the Buckeyes again.
Indiana’s not figuring out this defense in the first half, and the Nittany Lions should feast on the Big Ten’s worst run defense. Because of the high spread, this is one where I want to get the win and get out before James Franklin gets the backups on the field.
Pick: Penn State -18.5 First Half
Clemson at NC State (+10, 44), Saturday
Taking a look at both Oregon State and Clemson reveals a couple things. First, D.J. Uiagalelei wasn’t the problem last season for the Tigers; Clemson’s offense still isn’t very good. Second, Clemson can still play defense.
That’s key here, because N.C. State’s also an offensively-challenged squad. The Tigers held two of their past three opponents under 300 yards, and State hasn’t broken 319 yards in an ACC game this year. Barring a defensive score, this total is too high.
Pick: Under 44
Michigan State at Minnesota (-7, 40.5), Saturday
Minnesota is still playing with enthusiasm and hope. The Gophers aren’t great this year, but they can still make a bowl game. For P.J. Fleck’s program, getting to a bowl in a down year would represent a major accomplishment.
The Spartans have been a dead team walking ever since Mel Tucker’s dismissal, and it gets no easier here. To make a bowl, Michigan State would have to beat Ohio State or Penn State and win all of its other games. But the Spartans haven’t come close against anyone but Rutgers since Tucker was fired.
In near-freezing temperatures in Minneapolis, they’re not going to want to be out there.
Pick: Minnesota -7
Air Force at Colorado State (+12, 48.5)
If you can’t stop the run, you’ve got no chance against Air Force. Colorado State’s run defense is suspect, and it doesn’t run the ball well enough to keep the Falcons’ offense off the field.
The Rams might score with the pass, but the defense is going to get worn down by the Falcons’ long drives. That’s going to put Air Force over the top here.
Pick: Air Force -12
Miami-Ohio at Ohio (-7, 39)
This would have been a candidate for a high-scoring game until Brett Gabbert went down. Without him, Miami doesn’t have the personnel to put up points. The RedHawks got four possessions with Aveon Smith at quarterback, and they gained a grand total of 44 yards, punting three times and fumbling once.
Ohio will be perfectly happy to methodically march down the field and eat up clock. The Bobcats might mix in an occasional toss to Sam Wiglusz, but otherwise, they’ll slow this game down and let the defense do the rest.
Pick: Under 39
West Virginia +7
Penn State -18.5 First Half
Clemson-NC State Under 44
Air Force -12.5
Miami of Ohio-Ohio Under 39